Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO)…

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO)

158.27

+1.79 (1.14%)

as of Oct 2, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

1037 watching

SELL

If it breaks through $109.50, you'll go down to $105, and then the next spot is $98. Banks are predictable, not a big drop. Better places to deploy capital because of seasonality and rate slowdown. He'd look at it again around $100-105. Interest rates would really need to rise to see it break through.

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BUY

The Canadian banks are good value. They've come off their highs in the recent reports, due to the harsh market action in Q4 2018. CIBC is the cheapest of the pack in terms of PE and highest yield, but it's also had its issues. It's priced accordingly. He likes the American exposure of TD, though. These are not expensive stocks. You can't go wrong with these banks.

DON'T BUY

TD-T vs. CM-T. The banks this year should have an up year. He prefers TD-T. CM-T has the most exposure to Canada. They are going to do US acquisitions but those they buy will be at much higher multiples than CM-T trades at now so it will be dilutive.

BUY

They are the most attractive from a valuation basis. 5% yield. Canadian banks above 5% yield are always a buy. CM-T has not participated in recent strength in banks. It’s a buying opportunity.

BUY

Just went through bank reporting season. Dividends rose as expected. Banks are off a little bit. CIBC disappointed a little more than the others. The concern with CIBC is its domestic exposure. A made in Canada recession would impact this name. Yield is good.

BUY

Reports on Thursday He plays a US-centric angle among Canadian banks, so doesn't own CM. But CM's earnings should be decent and should enjoy upside into the summer.

BUY

He recently took profits out of risk-reward, not because he was bearish. It's been in a channel between $110-125. This should eventually hit $130, if you have a long-term view.

COMMENT

Placing a January 2020 covered call? He's unsure about going to January 2020 unless you want to generate a set rate of return based on dividends and income from the covered option. It's the highest yielding Canadian bank at 5.5%. If you sell a Jan. 2020 call slightly out of the money you'll get another 4%. That's an over 9% return and capital gain. CM's numbers have been good lately. This could hit $125.

TOP PICK

It's traded in a range for the past 10 years and recently fell to $104 and has since risen. Buy the cheapest bank in the group because it will beat the other banks,. It had its nasty bit. He targets $127. (Analysts’ price target is $125.43)

WATCH

The next target is $1.12. If it gets through that, it will bring in a lot of room to $1.20 for the next resistance. We are getting the seasonal strength finally kicking in.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Bought it a couple of years ago. He is looking for an exit. He doesn't own stocks that move from an uptrend. The story is over unless a miracle happens. He doesn't see any catalyst.

BUY

Valuation in the bank group is compelling. Only one with yield over 5%. Trading at 1.4x book, strong balance sheet. Negative has always been that it's domestic, and more exposed to the mortgage market. If your outlook is longer term, and you want the dividend, it's a good buy today.

WATCH

The banks did not have their strong seasonal period recently and he reduced his holdings to just BMO-T. We are at a magic level here. It is banging into resistance right now. If we get above $105 it will be clear sailing to $110. BMO-T or TD-T are the best banks and CM-T is pretty good. We should have a second period of seasonality starting near the end of January until April.

HOLD

It was the worst performing bank stock in 2018. It should be the best this year on that basis. At these prices it is at or above 5% yield. It is one of the more domestic banks. The Canadian economy will not be the engine it was. The earnings momentum going forward will be linked to the Canadian economy. He is leaning outside of Canada for future bank investments.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 19/18, Down 3%) Value stocks didn't work last year. All the banks have been weak. This was no exception.

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Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO)