Celestica Inc (CLS.TO)

He is taking his time looking at this one. They have really struggled and earnings over the last couple of quarters have been disappointing. But what he likes is that capital spending will eventually fall into their hands. At some point things will turn.

He does not particularly like it. Investors think it is a technology play, but really it is a contract manufacturer without a lot of pricing power. Margins are low and it is fairly cyclical. The competitive strength is not enough to make him want to have a position.

(A Top Pick Jan 6/17. Down 17%.) Recent earnings have been a disappointment, down 25% on Oct 25. He used a stop loss to sell the stock earlier.

It one of Canada’s largest suppliers of electronic components and they took a hit, so he sold it in wake of the earnings call. He did well on it but nothing lasts forever. It will be a few quarters turning around.

$300 million in cash and less than 9 times earnings. They just can’t get any love. It had a bit better execution in terms of earnings and they could get recognized. They buy back stocks. Leverage on their operations is quite high and it has not performed yet. (Analysts’ target: $14.87).

(Top Pick Jan 6/17, Down 12%) You have some negative earnings. It has negative price momentum. The upcoming earnings are expected to be down for two quarters.

It had a great run, was a cheap stock and still is. Phenomenal balance sheet. They have room to move. Price momentum is the knock against them. They had a bad quarter and then more sellers brought out more sellers.

This is a tough one, because last week it had a negative transit. Even as of yesterday, it is still trying to hold here. It could go down to his EVB line of $12.83, so there could be more downside. His model price is $28.52, a 90% upside. This is cyclical and could go lower. It is worth buying at $12.83.

Canada is phenomenal in areas we don’t think we are. This one is trading at a big discount to its peers. One of the biggest suppliers to the aerospace and defense industry. We may not be the dominant brand, but we are the brains behind the brands. They are a little bit behind on valuation. (Analysts’ target: $15.50).

(A Top Pick Nov 4/16. Up 9.44%.) This does not pay a dividend, but has a significant free cash flow generation. They also own property near the Science Centre which has been re-permitted for multiple use. A low, flat building that has been used for manufacturing, probably the largest chunk of real estate in Toronto. The underlying business is quite good. They are moving away from physical telephones and servers to medical and aeronautical devices giving higher profit margins.

A manufacturer for other manufacturers. When companies get busy, they give their excess runs to this company. Not a bad little company. However, this is a later cycle stock. They have been buying back stock aggressively and the balance sheet is very, very strong. As the market and the economy continues to advance, it becomes a later stage company as well. He likes the Tech sector overall. Earnings leverage is very, very good.

Essentially an outsource company. Other tech companies will go to them to either do some research on technology that they want developed, or build the technology for them. This is a company that can do well in a later stage economy, as demand is increasing for certain companies and they don’t want to build a new plant. Also, priced below its peers. The company is shareholder friendly where they have been buying back a lot of shares. They’ve done some restructuring and look like they are back on the growth path now. He likes this.

In the next 2 months, tech names should be a core part of your portfolio. Chart shows this has been pretty volatile, but it had 2 double bottoms in 2016, which is pretty positive. That was followed by a nascent uptrend. He is expecting the stock to come back in the next 2 months. The $17.50 will be bringing in a lot of buyers. (See Top Picks.)

CLS-T vs. MRE-T. It seems CLS-T has business picking up. but MRE-T is stuck in some kind of a glut that they can’t break out of. He refers CLS-T.

Contract manufacturers. They were manufacturing phones, and consumer products, which are now less than 3% of their total manufacturing. They do a lot of business in servers and other stuff, as well as branching out into medical and aerospace. Produced $215 million of free cash flow in the last 4 months, an 11% free cash flow yield. Has about $600 million of cash. 14.8% trailing ROE. Earnings per share grew by 50% on a 22% increase in sales. They also have the ability to free up some cash on some Toronto real estate. (Analysts’ price target is $16.33.)