Opinions
Robert McWhirter
Celestica Inc
CLS-T
TOP PICK
Jan 06, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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It doesn't pay a dividend, Assembles materials for data centres and correlates to Nvidia. It has been switching to a more stable recurring revenue sysytem. He wonders about other developments coming and looks for dividend paying stocks with less volatility. He talked about Verses Tech on the Neo exchange (VERS) with a different method of machine learning and AI which uses less computer power and less electricity.
Great Canadian success story. Positioned themselves well to benefit from the AI trend and data centre buildout. Benefiting from semiconductor companies spending huge amounts. Not cheap, but not egregiously overpriced. Huge run, but earnings momentum is there. Take a bit off the table.
In general, margins for contract manufacturers are very thin. But this name's on a roll. Great space, as the world will continue to build data centres. Very strong earnings momentum. Consistent upgrades to earnings estimates, which is what you want in a growth stock. Better than 98% of companies in the S&P over last 52 weeks.
A bit stretched above MAs, may be susceptible to a miss. Reports in 11 days, and no sign that it has big risks.
We would be comfortable today as long as an investor has a 3 year+ timeframe to hold. Funamental momentum is very positive and the recent quarter showed an acceleration of growth.
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Lots of investors are taking profits, generally, now that earnings season is over. Needed a strong stomach for this one; in April, was under $80. He can't even recommend writing some calls, as he's been doing that and it's not working ;) He ended up having to buy the calls back, as he didn't want to get called away.
Don't trim. Hold on, and use a stop of around $250.
Have done a super job to be front and centre in data centres, both back and front end. But this is still cyclical. He sold it after a tremendous run, but left money on the table. The valuation is way at the high end around 40x earnings. This has gone from one extreme to another.
Contract manufacturers. They were manufacturing phones, and consumer products, which are now less than 3% of their total manufacturing. They do a lot of business in servers and other stuff, as well as branching out into medical and aerospace. Produced $215 million of free cash flow in the last 4 months, an 11% free cash flow yield. Has about $600 million of cash. 14.8% trailing ROE. Earnings per share grew by 50% on a 22% increase in sales. They also have the ability to free up some cash on some Toronto real estate. (Analysts’ price target is $16.33.)