Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO)

A lot of bank stocks are coming off. This is right at the support level. The main body of support is at $58.15. Banks have had huge rallies so this could be a natural pullback. If it drops below $59, he could see another $2-$3 drop but doesn’t think it will go much further. He would watch and start buying a little if it went below $59. If it drops below $56 sell your positions.

Well-run company. Just had a leadership change. Their international exposure was a bit of a growth engine but now you obviously have the currencies of emerging markets coming back a little bit and there could be a bit of a drag on growth. Longer-term, this is a good growth story. Relatively fully valued. If you want other opportunities on the banking side, the US is definitely a better place to be.

There will probably be a dividend to come. He would add.

People are pretty negative on this bank rate right now because they are worried about Latin America. Every time people are worried about Latin America and Scotia Bank, it has always been a great time to buy it. They are acting pretty well.

He would take a long term position, but in the next 2-4 months banks will be lower than here.

We just came off a period of seasonal strength from October through to December. Had a tremendous run and then broke that trend. Chart shows it has developed a double top, which is typical of all Canadian financials right now. Next period of seasonal strength would be from the end of January through to April. He is more in favour of US financials right now.

Very well run bank. You want to own it for two reasons. When we are headed into a tough environment in lending, which we are not right now, and two, when you want to benefit from growth in South America, which right now they are not. In the short run that exposure is hurting them. In a decent market you want to own what people want to own today. Prefers US banks.

(A Top Pick Dec 13/12. Up 15.6%.) Caribbean is definitely not doing well as tourism really hasn’t recovered. Other Central American countries are doing okay. Still likes their ability to be in faster growing markets than Canada.

(Market Call Minute.) Had a nice run, so maybe wait for a nice pullback. If you own it, own it for life.

He is a big holder of bank stocks in Canada. BNS is probably the best one with the best track record growing outside of Canada. He sees rising dividend, well run institution.

Preferred Q recently reset from 4.95% to 3.61%. Price dropped to $24.65 and all of a sudden, it is above $25 at 3.61%. Why? These recently came out in 2008, with this brand-new structure with a reset rate, in this case 1.7%-2% over Canada bonds.. Canada bond yields fell so these got reset at much lower rates. Market had thought the banks were going to call them anyways. Capital treatment of these has started to decline so a Call is more likely. When investors actually looked at the relative value compared to GICs or bank deposit notes, they are pretty cheap so started to buy them again.

If interest rates and tapering happen in the US, with this bank’s exposure to emerging markets would they be affected? The potential negative on tapering is that they have a lot of emerging-market exposure. To the extent that the market perceives that tapering is bad for emerging-market growth that could be a potential negative. She is quite constructive on the outlook for the global economy. Latest readings on PMI are getting quite positive and she would expect, outside of the 1^st quarter where there is noise with a debt ceiling and budget debates, that into the back half of the year you are going to see the US and global economy start to accelerate, which will be quite positive for this bank.

Wouldn’t want to be jumping into banks with 2 feet at this time. Stocks have had a very good run. This one has the benefit of being in the international segment and there is some benefit to that in terms of emerging markets which have come down. Canadian housing market is still a very prominent feature of the banks.

Chances of a share split are unlikely. He has a target $69 on this.

Thinks this is early for this bank to be thinking and talking about a share split. He would expect it will be 3-4 years out before this happens. This had been his trading favourite in the last 3-4 months because it was lagging a little bit. This last little run up has made up a fair bit of the deficit. This would still be his 2^nd or 3^rd favourite.