BlackBerryBB.TODON'T BUYMar 13, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
Technical situation has been positive from a trading perspective, marching higher since March. People don't understand the importance of its software in applications that can't afford to fail. Massive run in a short time.
Generating cash and some growth. A more speculative play in an important, growing area.
Now starting to take off. Transformed from phone maker to software company. Embedded auto software plus cybersecurity. Auto software is the story -- revenue grew, margins improved, stronger cashflow, good backlog, guidance higher than expected.
Is it a pure momentum name? Blown through all its targets. Might see a healthy pullback. Definitely take some profits. For the long term, core business model has changed. On her watchlist.
Has had a bit of a turnaround, and numbers are starting to back up the story. A very different company, now focused on 2 software businesses. Embedded in vehicles globally, now turning its sights to AI and robotics.
Recent rally driven by NVDA deal. Fundamentals look better, but execution still has to keep up. She'll watch from the sidelines. If owned, take some profits.
Software geared very much to the automotive industry -- mainly infotainment but also autonomous driving platforms. Has done extremely well. QNX software embedded in 255M vehicles around the world. Room for growth.
If you own it, stick with it. Buy some more ~$6.40, and a final third around $6 (doesn't think it'll go below that).
For this one, he's looking at the very right side of a 1-year chart. You can see the basing, but what you want to see is a breakout. Could be a swing trade, but doesn't really have enough movement to do that. Could go sideways forever, or break to the downside. Don't buy until you see that breakout.
His book Sideways goes into this strategy in detail.
BB is slowly becoming irrelevant. It hasn't made money since 2015, and its large cash balance is gone. Cash flow was negative $263M last year. Sales continue to decline, and it missed its sales estimate last quarter. BlackBerry's sales should remain volatile as it separates its Cybersecurity unit from its higher-growth Internet of Things (IoT) segment, with disruption likely to result. Revenue may expand at an average annual rate of 3.1% in fiscal 2024-27, based on estimates. The higher growth potential of IoT vs. the Cybersecurity unit could prompt a spinoff of the former, allowing investors to tap IoT's sales growth exclusively. High-margin licensing fees have fallen to an annual run rate of about $20 million following the sale of most of the patent portfolio. The resulting margin pressure is likely to abate as QNX and other profitable new offerings pick up. Overall, while its technology may still have promise, it has over the past decade destroyed shareholder value, with management changes adding more uncertainty. It is vey hard to endorse.
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