The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Bank of AmericaBACTOP PICKJul 30, 2020

Last quarter was a blowout, profits rose 17% -- best EPS in nearly 2 decades, best trading quarter in 15 years. Great guidance. Sees 22% upside. Should continue to do well, wait for a pullback to add.

Of the two, he'd prefer BAC. However, both are distant runners-up to JPM.

Midterms shouldn't have a huge impact on money-centre banks, regardless of who holds the balance of power. Lower interest rates and a steeper yield curve are very constructive for the banks, and BAC is best able to take advantage of that. Makes its net interest margin prospects very good.

All banks were hurt somewhat by private credit worries and prospects of few rate cuts this year.

US banks haven't been performing as well as Canadian banks right now. Headwinds from slowing economy among the middle-lower class. Fear of private debt, as a lot of the big banks offer that type of fund.

What matters is direction of interest rates (lower means more business plus lower mortgage payments) as well as drop in USD (attracts foreign investors). Wait-and-see come May, when new Federal Reserve chair takes the helm. If rates are cut, US banks should come back to life.

Its valuation is 11X earnings and trades at a discout to JPM. It is working on taking over JPM's playbook and inter-connecting dominant brands.

Fallen slightly below its 200-day MA, so keep an eye on that. Benefits from strengthening economy and deregulation. Yield is 2.4%, expects that to be solid going forward.

Citi is the most technically sound among peers.

Sensitive to net interest margins and a steeper yield curve. Loan growth and total deposits are doing very well and improving. Now is a good entry point. Valuation is historically low.

Still more upside. Deregulation in the US means they need to hold less capital so they can buy back shares or increase dividends. Foresees more M&A in the sector. Capital markets business thrives in this volatility.

He's out of US financials, but this would be his second choice behind Citi.

Most banks have rallied strongly over last year and a bit, so yields have come down. As we look toward midterm elections, typically Republican governments are good for deregulation (allowing banks to invest more and grow faster). Strong business, especially as the IPO pipeline is opening up this year. Solid hold. Yield is 2.3%.

He owns MS.

Last fall, his team started to see the infrastructure transition to an end-user/earnings story. While they were trying to figure out which ones to buy, they just bought the XLF ETF. It did very well.

More recently, they got into BAC and JPM. These ones have actually embraced AI on the fraud side. Initially, AI was meant to do repetitive jobs faster and cheaper. But now with reasoning coming on, it can identify inefficiencies.

To his knowledge, 1 of every 2 households in the US has some sort of relationship or banking product with BAC. Amazing CEO. Great job increasing ROC and EPS. Underwriting is second to none. Domestic economy is really chugging along. Unless you believe the US economy is about to fall off a cliff or downgrade substantially, BAC will probably do well.

Valuation dichotomy between Canadian and US banks is not as wide as it was. He wouldn't say to sell BAC and buy Canadian, as they're different businesses. In a non-registered account, there's a currency issue and maybe a capital gains one as well. Probably more upside.

It just reported a solid quarter: 7% revenue growth, 18% earnings growth and 10% net interest income. It sold off 3.78% today, which is extreme. All business lines beat. They guided 5-7% net interest income growth this year.

It reports Wednesday. He doesn't think interest rates will come down dramatically. US banks don't own the mortgage assets but Canadian banks do. He thinks it is a good business but it is good to take profits on a stock and cut back its percentage of your portfolio.

It reports Wednesday. They are consistently good with few surprises and he expects it this time.