Bank of AmericaBACCOMMENTSep 13, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 23, 2026. Market Open.
Very well run. Big banks can't win in every segment every quarter. Rising rates create a problem for banks, both in loan books and securities portfolios. Earnings were a bit sloppy, but no cause for alarm. Reasonable PE of ~10x. Very strong dividend yield. Strong balance sheet.
Makes sense to add on a pullback.
All bank margins have been hurt by quick rise in the price of money, which slows down lending and moves funds to GICs. He trimmed a bit. When the AI mania breaks, the S&P doesn't do very well, and people go to the bond market, he wonders how that's going to affect advisers and banks (who rely on trading volumes).
The US banks are only okay. They have around 7% total returns. Citi is the turnaround story that's finally turning around. BAC is a more stable. Citi has a more global footprint. He wouldn't buy either. Valuations are a little rich. You will get stable returns, though misses at earnings from high expectations. Are better opportunities elsewhere.
Midterms shouldn't have a huge impact on money-centre banks, regardless of who holds the balance of power. Lower interest rates and a steeper yield curve are very constructive for the banks, and BAC is best able to take advantage of that. Makes its net interest margin prospects very good.
All banks were hurt somewhat by private credit worries and prospects of few rate cuts this year.
US banks haven't been performing as well as Canadian banks right now. Headwinds from slowing economy among the middle-lower class. Fear of private debt, as a lot of the big banks offer that type of fund.
What matters is direction of interest rates (lower means more business plus lower mortgage payments) as well as drop in USD (attracts foreign investors). Wait-and-see come May, when new Federal Reserve chair takes the helm. If rates are cut, US banks should come back to life.
Bond yields are likely to slowly work higher, and financials are the most positively impacted by a rise in yields. This one looks really attractive and he considered making it a Top pick today. Loan growth is solid in the US. This had recently been run as though rates are never going to go higher, so have been focused on cost cutting and ways to be more profitable in a low interest rate environment. You are likely to see good dividend growth with all the US banks. This one also has capital market exposure, and with his view that we are in a bull market for stocks, there is likely to be lots of M&A and underwriting of new issues.