Opinions
The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki
Boeing
BA-N
TOP PICK
Oct 10, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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A nightmare. They reported a horrendous quarter today, losing $1 billion a month from this machinists' strike, and they've forgotten how to make planes. That said, buy a lot of shares when they do a secondary offering (much lower than the current share price) to shore up their balance sheet to survive. Why buy? They enjoy a duopoly. After this strike, Boeing will be back to profit again. Demand for airplanes remains strong, a half-trillion dollars worth. The company has poor, arrogant management, and a lousy corporate culture.
Enjoys an oligopoly with Airbus. There's strong demand from the airlines as more people are travelling. However, Boeing has a terrible balance sheet, problems with the 737 Max, parts shortages, and now the unions. Management needs to prove it can deliver and right the ship. Airlines may prefer Airbus long term. Boeing needs to redeem itself.
Company under pressure - recent announcements to raise debt and equity. Working capital has fallen short lately. Recent union negotiations time consuming. However, demand for products high. Will depend on how well company executes in the next 1-2 years. Time will tell. Would recommend watching for now.
Not a bad sign. On a 5-year chart, you can see somewhat of a floor in the low $120s. It's bounced off that. Is there potential? Yes, that bounce plus positive divergence gives you potential to perhaps reach the top of that trading range (+/- $240).
LMT has definitely done better over the last couple of years. BA is a bit of a recovery play here. In general, where we are in the cycle, he thinks we're in phase 2 but on the cusp of phase 3. Phase 2 is typically where materials, industrials, and technology continue to do well.
These names should do OK, but we are approaching the end of the cycle. Ultimately, at some point, we'll see rotation out of these industrial plays.
The CFO recently made comments: the troubled 737 is closer to resuming production, as the 787 could increase production later this year. Really, the 737 is more important. Also, their ailing defence business is starting to stabilize and recover, though their commercial business could improve. Maybe cash flow will improve; there are signs it is already. They won't be hit by tariffs, because 80-90% of their supply chain is in the US. They have a half-trillion-dollar backlog Last Friday, the US Air Force awarded Boeing the contract for fighter jets. He'd like to see a few good quarters of stronger results, and it's early in this turnaround though it's getting its act together. Also, Boeing enjoys little competition and airplane demand is strong.
The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sales, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems, and services worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Commercial Airplanes; Defense, Space & Security; Global Services; and Boeing Capital. The Commercial Airplanes segment provides commercial jet aircraft for passenger and cargo requirements, as well as fleet support services. The Defense, Space & Security segment engages in the research, development, production, and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems; strategic defense and intelligence systems, which include strategic missile and defense systems, command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, cyber and information solutions, and intelligence systems; and satellite systems, such as government and commercial satellites, and space exploration. The Global Services segment offers products and services, including supply chain and logistics management, engineering, maintenance and modifications, upgrades and conversions, spare parts, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, technical and maintenance documents, and data analytics and digital services to commercial and defense customers. Social media mentions are up 114% in the past 24h.