
TSE:AVO
CFO left suddenly and you never want to see a CFO leave right before the earnings announcement. It appears results are quite strong. Explosive growth. The US represents above 51% of revenues. Sales are up at around 65%. Technology is state-of-the-art in terms of Internet protocol security cameras. The challenge is that it trades at nosebleed levels. This is a name he likes.
CFO left suddenly because of health reasons and the stock dropped 20% today. Coming out with earnings tonight. A lot of people are spooked when a CFO leaves the day before the earnings. Company has done a very good job in accelerating earnings growth. The multiple has always been high. Have a lot of cash on the balance sheet and he thinks growth is going to continue.
A high tech name so the price is reflecting in what is happening in the US, which is having a correction. Also, just did an issue so a lot of demand has been satisfied. These are the 2 reasons why the stock is pausing. This is a good opportunity for people to get in. Has a new product, a high definition camera that has very similar pricing and yet much better performance and a much better quality product. Management is aggressively pursuing global expansion.
Thinks this is suffering from “momentumitis”. It was a massive winner last year and when you see that, it is really hard to step into that momentum. You want to see it consolidate here. As long as they can hold onto their revenue growth, 50%-70%, which apparently is intact, they should be okay. If a couple of quarters went by and everything was intact, he would be buying this again.
Chart shows an upward channel trend running from 2012 up to the latter part of 2013. This was followed by a breakout with congestion since late 2013. He does not like congestion and heavy, heavy volume. This tells him there are enthusiastic buyers, but also there is a lot of enthusiastic selling. He would wait until that resolves itself. If you are in the stock, start reducing.
Stock had a big gap where it jumped up from $20.55 to $24.50 back in November. It is pulling back, but doesn’t look too bad, in line with the markets. Volume, which just started in May/2013, is very positive, so you’ll see more people following this. You have to be very careful if it drops below $24 because it will be a big drop. You probably want to use a 100 day moving average as a Stop.
High-end video surveillance cameras with super high definition. Ranks really well in his process. Have been picking up a lot of market share. Just made an acquisition of Video Analytics, which can recognize and flag objects for the viewer. Growth rate of this stock has been unbelievable. PE is not cheap, trading at 38X earnings, but looking at it on a PE to growth ratio, it is a reasonable valuation.