TSE:AVO

Avigilon Corp (AVO.TO)

COMMENT

CFO left suddenly and you never want to see a CFO leave right before the earnings announcement. It appears results are quite strong. Explosive growth. The US represents above 51% of revenues. Sales are up at around 65%. Technology is state-of-the-art in terms of Internet protocol security cameras. The challenge is that it trades at nosebleed levels. This is a name he likes.

WATCH

There is support at $18.80. We are at support so you might see it bounce up. The market is not sure why executives are leaving. If it holds, a trader might want to get back in.

WATCH

These guys are growing revenues at an alarming clip, but the valuation was a concern for him and some members of the team are leaving and some investors are spooked. It may take a quarter or two to build a base in the name.

BUY

The CFO left on the day of the earnings release. But earnings were solid, yet the stock bounces around today. He would not change the investment thesis here. As long as the margin is increasing at the same time as sales, then it means they are under control.

COMMENT

CFO left suddenly because of health reasons and the stock dropped 20% today. Coming out with earnings tonight. A lot of people are spooked when a CFO leaves the day before the earnings. Company has done a very good job in accelerating earnings growth. The multiple has always been high. Have a lot of cash on the balance sheet and he thinks growth is going to continue.

WATCH

Have these tremendous growth targets that they achieve with organic growth plus acquisitions. Pullbacks are natural here. He would not chase it here. Let the earnings catch up to the valuation.

COMMENT

Great growth story. Has made acquisitions in great numbers, but given another quarter and an acquisition, the slide in the stock should be corrected at some point. Trading at 32X estimated earnings.

TOP PICK

A high tech name so the price is reflecting in what is happening in the US, which is having a correction. Also, just did an issue so a lot of demand has been satisfied. These are the 2 reasons why the stock is pausing. This is a good opportunity for people to get in. Has a new product, a high definition camera that has very similar pricing and yet much better performance and a much better quality product. Management is aggressively pursuing global expansion.

COMMENT

Thinks this is suffering from “momentumitis”. It was a massive winner last year and when you see that, it is really hard to step into that momentum. You want to see it consolidate here. As long as they can hold onto their revenue growth, 50%-70%, which apparently is intact, they should be okay. If a couple of quarters went by and everything was intact, he would be buying this again.

PARTIAL SELL

Chart shows an upward channel trend running from 2012 up to the latter part of 2013. This was followed by a breakout with congestion since late 2013. He does not like congestion and heavy, heavy volume. This tells him there are enthusiastic buyers, but also there is a lot of enthusiastic selling. He would wait until that resolves itself. If you are in the stock, start reducing.

BUY

Has done well. Positioning things well for growth, have added extra sales people and when they do that they increase sales.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Whenever the markets are weak, the big companies get hit the most. However, nothing has changed fundamentally. Going to grow 56%-60% this year.

COMMENT

Stock had a big gap where it jumped up from $20.55 to $24.50 back in November. It is pulling back, but doesn’t look too bad, in line with the markets. Volume, which just started in May/2013, is very positive, so you’ll see more people following this. You have to be very careful if it drops below $24 because it will be a big drop. You probably want to use a 100 day moving average as a Stop.

BUY

Good chart. Had long areas of consolidation in early 2013 and mid-2013 followed by breakouts. Currently it is now making higher highs and higher lows but it is trying to consolidate again. A very healthy looking picture.

TOP PICK

High-end video surveillance cameras with super high definition. Ranks really well in his process. Have been picking up a lot of market share. Just made an acquisition of Video Analytics, which can recognize and flag objects for the viewer. Growth rate of this stock has been unbelievable. PE is not cheap, trading at 38X earnings, but looking at it on a PE to growth ratio, it is a reasonable valuation.

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