Applied Materials (AMAT)

Semiconductors are doing their own thing. This is old tech. Model price is $85 with a 100% upside. But it is a cyclical. Over the last three years it has been on a tear and is pausing here. He would e a buyer here – a small amount.

Bought the stock a couple of months ago. Still puts strong numbers. Multiple is less than 10 times earnings. One of the concerns is that the semiconductors companies pulled back on their order books a little bit. A buying opportunity. You are exposed to all the hot tech areas with this company.

(Past Top Pick, January 25, 2018, Down 18%) It's in the crosshairs of the trade wars now. They make machines that make microchips. AMAT is involved in many industries, so it's still well-positioned, especially in A.I., the next big wave in tech. 10x earnings which are still growing and will grow the rest of 2018. Generating lots of cash. They recently increased their dividend and buybacks. It's a little risky to enter now, but if you hold it, it's worth it.

His model price is 78% higher than the current price. AMAT is a cyclical stock, like Micron. There has been a major positive move since 2015. It is common in cyclicals to see earnings continue to rise after a major move but the stock only go so far and that’s what’s happening with AMAT. If there is any hint of a slowdown in tech, this stock would roll over big time. There is no sell signal yet, but unless there are signs of another 2-year cycle, AMAT will see pressure.

Continues to have a strong buyback. Don’t see a lot of growth. All in, he doesn’t like it at these levels.

The major components in developing a semi-conductor foundry are from companies like this. With the Chinese building new facilities there is enormous demand for the equipment that AMAT-O produces. The question is will the demand continue? The time to buy was 2015. This is a better trade than a long term hold. You could consider shorting it when it starts to show weakness.

It has pulled back to a breakpoint value. This is the third time it bounced here. Upside is about 30%. If you are comfortable with the market then it is okay to roll the dice on it.

Semi-conductors have become volatile in the past few weeks. Money is leaking away from some financials, though it's not a major problem. People are finding cash to buy energy and materials. Semis will be okay and perform well.

Sells and operates equipment to semi-conductor companies. A great business. The world is moving in their direction as more value comes from semi-conductors which are appearing in more and more products like cars. This is all a tailwind.

All semi-conductors are getting hit. Rose 50% over the part year, and now dropping 10%. Not a fans of semis. Expect more cyclicality and volatility, if you hold. Holding is fine. These stocks can drop quickly.

He knows this company well. It provides equipment to the semi-conductor sector. As the tariff threat against China has heated up, the company is at risk since 19% of their sales is to China. He owns it based on the current valuation.

Semi-conductor stocks move so much in a week, though Applied has shot up. Tech (computer chips) is broadening across many industries and applications--where there's a huge secular theme. Trading at only 12-13x, so it's not expensive. But this is a cycle, so beware of a sudden breakdown in the market when this will certainly go down. He's stepped out of semis last summer and entered instead the internet. They just started another buyback, so they're doing everything right. This is a high-beta name.

You are going to more of a spend right now in this sector. You could do worse in applied materials.

Shows an uptrend which is possibly breaking, or the chart might be showing a double top. There is a neckline at about 48. The stock is about 48 now. If it goes down further, it is breaking the trend. If it rebounds to the trend line, consider it but it looks dangerous at this time.

On a daily chart, you might have a cross on the 10 and 21 day. The base seems to be at around $48-$49, and the chart indicates we are making higher highs and higher lows.