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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 26/08. Up 25%.) As the US$ rallied all commodity stocks got hammered. Fundamentals of this company could not be better. Tremendous demand for the product and pricing has been favourable. Very cheap.
HOLD
Fertilizer stocks have been very turbulent lately. Wouldn't be surprised to see it fall off to the mid-$60's but would buy more at that time. Over the next 12 months, it could go back into the $90's. He continues to be optimistic on fertilizer stocks in general. Expecting food prices to stay high and continuing demand from India and China.
BUY
Great entry point. Model price is $101.72, a 31% upside.
DON'T BUY
Seasonally not a great time to buy agricultural stocks. What went up a long ways can come down along ways. In a very key support area and if it breaks down by another couple of dollars you have a real problem. (He is short Potash (POT-T).)
BUY
Agrium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T) are moving into Buying territory. Whether you Buy now or wait until next week, agricultural stocks are Buys.
BUY
In the midst of a correction. Sitting on its 200-day moving average. Believes that between $75 and $80 would be a good entry point. It should at least go back up to the previous high.
BUY
The stock as well as Potash (POT-T) looks amazing to him.
BUY
Very much likes the fertilizer sector. An opportunity to invest in a company that is underpinned by very strong earnings growth. Single-digit multiple.
HOLD
Wouldn't be worried about this one. Hasn't had a full quarter yet after their acquisition of United Agri-Products (UAP). Lags Potash (POT-T) and Mosaic (MOS-N) because it wasn't as pure a potash play. Thinks their diversification is a good thing.
DON'T BUY
Commodities are intrinsically volatile. Not difficult to bring on more food capacity. Expecting more volatility in these stocks. These companies should send cash back to shareholders. Will probably go sideways for 2 years.
BUY
Will participate in the current run.
DON'T BUY
If in the short run, in all of these stocks, there was a possibility of a pretty good percentage point rally. It is more likely to be a short-term issue than longer-term. Had blowout earnings but the stock did not behave well. This one has more work to do.
TOP PICK
Fertilizer company that’s part retail, part phosphate, part potash and part nitrogen. Trading at about 7X next year’s earnings. Really cheap. Even with flat current prices it has a chance to be up 50%.
TOP PICK
Likes the diversity of 3 basic agricultural nutrients. Also have wholesale and retail operations. Trading at about 7X next year's earnings. Prices they are realizing on their product is still well below market prices so revenues should continue to be strong.
WAIT
Chart shows a nice long base over the last year and has come back to its support. On that basis, it looks to be a buying opportunity. He would rather have confirmation that the upside is there, so wait for upward movement accompanied by volume and some good fundamentals.
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