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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

DON'T BUY
Downgraded because of performance this week. Was a fabulous stock at $51 and a fabulous company but now is not a fabulous stock at the current value. He has nothing but respect for the company. It does a great job. Vertically integrated. Less subject to the ups and downs of the fertilizer market. He moved to POT, however.
STRONG BUY
Loves AGU. Fertilizer stocks look pretty attractive. Consider the sea water that came onto the land and it may not be available for years for crops. Farmers are going to want to increase their yields by using fertilizer. He bought more last week.
BUY
Cheapest of all the Ag stocks he follows. Given Chinese demand for corn, it will favour the nitrogen sector of this company.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Apr. 19/10, Up 37.15) Prefers this over POT because you get everything. Will hold on for a long time.
PARTIAL SELL
Loves agriculture, which is a very good place to be. Has had a good run up. In the long term it’s a good holding in a portfolio. With the recent run up, consider taking some profits.
DON'T BUY
Agrium (AGU-T) or Mosaic (MOS-N)? Agriculture sector did extremely well over the last couple of months. Was into agriculture stocks in July and sold out at the end of December, which is when these stocks tend to do well. Overall sector goes up 15.5% on average over the last 21 years. Seasonally this is a period when agriculture tends to be flat. Technically there might be a little more upside but there will be a lot of resistance at $91.50.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 11/09. Up 37.57%.) Likes the food complex. A long term story.
BUY
Likes fertilizers very much in a bull market. Supply of fertilizers is quite low.
BUY
Likes the retail side of agriculture. Like a one-stop shop as you get retail, nitrogen and phosphate.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick March 16/10. Up 95.17%. Buy Oct ’74 Calls @$7.25.) This was a straight bet that the stock was going up. Option was worth $14.50 on expiration.
COMMENT
Has had a pretty nice move. If it starts to break down, he wouldn’t give it too much room. Be tight with your Stops. There is room for the agriculture stocks to pull back.
COMMENT
Inventories of fertilizers are down and prices are rising. Expectation is that China will start buying again. Would be a nice fit with Mosaic (MOS-N), a chemical company. He is not buying right now. Waiting for valuations to catch up.
BUY
Falling fast and in a large part due to the same factors that are affecting oils and metals today. Also Mosaic announced more products going on the market. This one is a way to play the agricultural cycle because of its retail stores. Good for the medium and long term.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 1/10. Up 50.27%.) Just took profits. A little over extended and doesn’t think the fundamentals are improving as quickly as the market anticipates. People are building in potash prices north of $500 and we are barely pushing through $400.
WAIT
It is a cyclical market. Long-term secular factors are quite positive. He would look for quite a pullback to be interested. Wants 10-15% correction ($9).
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