AGF Management (B) (AGF.B.TO)

He has owned it in the past and sold a while ago because the share price dropped. The big issue is that they have a lot of margin pressure facing them. They are struggling against a tide. The share price is cheap but you need to look at where the industry is going.

(A Past Top Pick on July 26, 2017, Down 6%) Hasn't done much and has disappointed. Its UK division is worth much more than the market gives it credit for.

(A Top Pick July 20/17 Down 4%) The gain has evaporated into a slight loss, but he sees this entering into a bullish seasonal cycle so will hold it. The risk-reward is very good right now. There could be take-out rumours soon as the big banks are purchasing such assets.

(Past Top Pick on January 26, 2018, Down 15%) He sold at $7.17. He bought it because it was a turnaround story. Mutual fund companies got hit in February. He lost less than 7% and moved on.

(A Top Pick July 20/17, Up 0.69%) He still likes it. It has an excellent dividend and it could be a takeout candidate. It will have resistance at $7.25. It has a cup and handle formation with the handle not quite formed. If it gets above $8.60 it will be a screaming buy.

One of Canada’s oldest Mutual Fund companies. 20 billion in retail mutual funds. They got caught within the trap of investors looking for ETFs. They tried to make a shift into the alt space and they had some modest success in the area. They are going to suffer in the short term from a lot of the backlash towards higher fees and underperforming funds. Redemptions seem to have stabilized. Valuation makes sense. Dividend is 4.7% probably safe in the short term.

The last year on this has been a turnaround story. It has pretty good value and pretty good momentum. It went through a tough patch between 2011 and 2016, tougher regulations, tougher competition. They now have new management, and are rebranding their name. They’re going into infrastructure, factor based exchange traded funds and innovative ideas. (Analysts' price target is $8.75.)

It was a turnaround of sorts and had problems over the years. They were losing assets and have turned that around. Once CRA issues are cleared up it should go up. At some point he thinks someone will buy it.

People were worried about their survival. They have survived, but thinks it is not a great industry right now. They are having trouble gaining assets. Fees are still under pressure, which means margins are under pressure. He wouldn’t rush out to buy the stock.

This has been having a huge turnaround lately. They brought on a new president who is focused on trying to get the performance more consistent with the underlying funds. That has slowed down the redemptions. Thinks the next step will be where they go from slowing down to where they will actually start to see net inflows. Dividend yield of 4.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $7.)

This sort of fits in with his pro-growth theme. Financials are part of that. This one is a bit unique. Chart shows a long downtrend, which it broke through in April. You also got a signal in June for the longer-term. They didn’t execute very well for the last number of years, and were slow to change. Pays a decent dividend. Thinks there are a lot of tailwinds for this company. (Analysts’ price target is $7.)

* Short*. (Top Pick Jun 10’16, Down 47.16%) There has been more enthusiasm for the asset managers. He thinks the industry as a whole is still going to suffer from the continuing trend.

This is cheap. They are sitting on a lot of assets and earning fees from them. The asset management base has changed in the last 5 years. There has been a tremendous amount of fee compression. It doesn’t own its own distribution. This is probably fairly valued. Has a very high yield which can sometimes be a concern, but is probably safe for the foreseeable future. If looking for a new name, there are probably other areas where he would look.

Market Call Minute. There is not a lot of earnings momentum on this, and they have to do a lot internally to get their business model going.

The problem is that they just sell mutual funds and are under huge duress right now to be able to do something more than just that. Expects they will come out with a brand of ETF’s. Net outflows are continuing. It is not a good time to be a mutual fund company. When CRM2 regulations come out, people will start to see exactly what they are paying in fees, which are much, much higher than ETF’s. 6.4% dividend yield.