Philippe Capelle Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM-T HOLD Sep 12, 2013

Yesterday, he took just a little bit of gold out; on a 14% weighting, he sold around 2%. Doesn't own this one right now. If you're a longer-term player, gold has lots of room to go.

Gold looks a bit extended (temporarily). You can see that on the AEM chart; the breakout was around $80, had a good move, and now it's arcing off of the trendline.

Who knows where gold is going? He avoids commodity stocks, though. AEM is one of the best-run commodity companies. If you are positive gold, then buy this.

Surging earnings and production. EPS growth off the charts, partly due to gold prices hitting all-time highs. Very good asset base. Premier name. Exposed and levered to gold price swings. A bit extended on technical charts, overbought.

Prefers the silver market.

Still has growth, despite its big move recently and an extended valuation.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Whether he looks at RSI rankings for the Canadian or global universe of stocks, gold is winning. This name is still doing well, still ranks highly, and he's still holding. The trend is your friend till it ends ;)

Good company, but hard to buy right now. The only gold producer she owns. Yield is less than 1%, which no longer gives you much of a buffer; you're really banking on the stock price maintaining these levels. Stock more than doubled last year, up 72% this year. 90% of assets in really good jurisdictions.

Needs to see some steam come off the valuation before putting new $$ in.

Gold can certainly correct but it is difficult to forecast and the reasons will vary. Gold has had five annual losses since 2005, including -51% in 2011 and -46% in 2013. The US dollar and interest rates are the biggest drivers (good and bad). Companies with good cost control such as AEM have very good leverage to price moves. At $5000 gold, we would be fairly sure AEM would trade above $300.  It is 23x earnings today. We would be fine buying in the $235 range. 
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A more conservative name among the precious metals. When a bull market starts, it can go on for a decade in multiple stages. With gold, we're probably in the first one. Mining is a really hard business, so you want to own the leader. 

For years and years, management has done a great job doing what they say they're going to do. Multiple properties in geographically safe jurisdictions. Long-reserve-life assets. 

Balance sheet in great shape. Expect share buybacks. Great cashflow, nice growing dividend. Yield is 0.87%.