Ben RogoffApple IncAAPLDON'T BUYApr 24, 2006

In recent months, a recipient of a lot of the rotation away from the AI theme and the big hyperscalers that are spending massive amounts of $$ and raising massive amounts of debt. AAPL doesn't play in that space. 

That's pushed up the stock, which is wonderful, but now it's trading at 40x PE. At that valuation, earnings better be better than fantastic to maintain that multiple. That's not likely. He guesses that the stock is 25-30% overvalued at the moment. If anything goes even a little bit wrong, you could see AAPL easily fall 5-10% after market.

Risk from China is that it's a big part of its distribution for iPhones. Recent quarters have seen challenges in terms of competition.

High risk right now. 

They report Monday. Apple is one of the few names that hit all-time highs at the end of October because it has terrific products and benefit from Alphabet's AI models for Siri, without Apple spending huge on data centres. True, it sells at a high 40x PE, but he will remain an owner.

One of two tech stocks he'd own today. 

Though the PE is a little high, Apple own the customer base which puts them above other tech stories.

Wonderful company and wonderful ecosystem. Stock's not cheap. As a value investor, difficult for him to justify owning at this valuation. 

Still has a bit of a valuation issue, north of 30x PE. They've delivered, and will continue to do so. Its OS dominates the world at 70% of mobile devices, which will continue to generate growth. Doesn't know what'll happen to iPhone sales in China.

Other areas in tech are looking much, much cheaper. AAPL's getting a premium valuation, which it'll have to continue to earn. Not enough there to make it to the top of his list right now.

The new iPhone 18 was unveiled today and loves it. Each charge gives 36 hours of use, amazingly. Thinks it will be a big seller, be revolutionary for being a foldable phone. He will buy one.

He bought more Apple, and he keeps buying it. Since reporting, there was a big sell-off and a series of higher lows. The stock has recovered all it lost, post-earnings. So, he is playing the strong momentum and waiting for it to break the all-time high of $345.

Her team is less positive on consumer spending, so they're not in this name. Key for long-term success will be how they embed AI into the iPhone. Not an impressive job thus far. Management changes could result in better innovation on AI -- has potential, but needs to show it.

For her, it's less about the foldable phone and more about a unique AI platform.

The current rally is a delayed response to their new iPhone launch. Maybe the phone is worth $2,000, and maybe have the buzz going into the key holiday season. Despite current momentum, the 36x forward PE is too high. He'd add more shares under $300.

Interesting to see the reaction to the foldable phones; personally, he doesn't like them. Expensive, but for good reason. Tremendous ecosystem. With its cashflow and balance sheet, OK to pay a premium for such a leader. Chart can't get any better.

There are fears that Apple will raise the price of its next iPhone given the high cost of memory. Apple is defending their margins, but will they kill customer demand? The market isn't sure. History says the consumer will absorb the price hike.

Some predict weakness in Apple's new iPhone sales because Apple raised the price of the phone in line with the rising cost of memory. Demand will depend on the telcos--will they continue to subsidize the growth in iPhones? It could be a challenge for the telcos. Next week, Apple has to show very good progress with Siri to have a successful phone launch. If not....

Likes it, but he's selling calls on it now because price is up at the top of its range.