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Apple IncAAPLCOMMENTJul 06, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 25, 2026. Market Open.
Sat out the capex buildout, relying on owning the end consumer. Time will tell if this was the right strategy. Massive service industry, with margins above 75%. The default stalwart when investors get worried about AI capex debt. Really good brand and margins, best share buyback program ever. Market's still trying to figure out where it fits in the AI ecosystem.
Since March, he's bought this 6 times and it kept moving higher. It's up 26% since the June 25 low of $273. It is losing near-term momentum, for sure, and is vulnerable to a deeper decline. When it does, the stock will pause, and he will continue to buy more, because this is the Mag 7 stock that will stand above the others.
With Apple, there are always fundamental issues--manufacturing, chips, China, competition--which heat up as the PE rises, now 33x. If you're overweight Apple, they reduce their holding until the market climbs on the bandwagon when Apple is cheap and people load up. It always happens. She is happy to hold.
He sold half his position. It was frothy at $330 going into earnings. There's margin pressure from the rising costs of chips going into their new iPhones. While others were saying that Apple finally was going AI, he's still waiting. If you have an oversize position, takes some profits. But if your average cost of $15 and you're long term, then you'll pay a mighty big capital gains tax. Doubts this will fall back to $200. The fundamentals have not changed. Overall, the chart moves up with ups and downs. If this falls to $270, he's back in. Now, it's too expensive at 33x PE. He'd add at 25x PE though doubts we'll reach that.
Huge runup, she took profits. Great job building one of the strongest ecosystems in the world. Last quarter was strong. Warned that margins in coming quarters may be pressured by higher memory costs and supply constraints. Still playing catchup in AI.
Still likes it, but sees better value in companies that are building AI infrastructure rather than buying it. Be patient.
They avoided the AI spending crazy and took a measured approach, then partnered with other companies that did spend. These AI models will become commodities. It's interesting that CEO Tim Cook's successor is the head of hardware; he expects a serious change in Apple hardware which is where capital will be deployed. They will retain their loyal customers.
The big growth spurt was from 2006 to 2009, followed by a growth spurt in 2009-2011 and another one from 2013-2015. That is 3 growth spurts and this stock is in the 3rd phase. A lot of money was made in the 1st spurt, but not as much in the 2nd and even less in the 3rd. He thinks growth in this company is going to slow down. Most of the easy money has been made. He wouldn’t get too excited about this.