Apple IncAAPLTOP PICKJul 17, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 05, 2026. Market Open.
Still has a bit of a valuation issue, north of 30x PE. They've delivered, and will continue to do so. Its OS dominates the world at 70% of mobile devices, which will continue to generate growth. Doesn't know what'll happen to iPhone sales in China.
Other areas in tech are looking much, much cheaper. AAPL's getting a premium valuation, which it'll have to continue to earn. Not enough there to make it to the top of his list right now.
Her team is less positive on consumer spending, so they're not in this name. Key for long-term success will be how they embed AI into the iPhone. Not an impressive job thus far. Management changes could result in better innovation on AI -- has potential, but needs to show it.
For her, it's less about the foldable phone and more about a unique AI platform.
Some predict weakness in Apple's new iPhone sales because Apple raised the price of the phone in line with the rising cost of memory. Demand will depend on the telcos--will they continue to subsidize the growth in iPhones? It could be a challenge for the telcos. Next week, Apple has to show very good progress with Siri to have a successful phone launch. If not....
Sat out the capex buildout, relying on owning the end consumer. Time will tell if this was the right strategy. Massive service industry, with margins above 75%. The default stalwart when investors get worried about AI capex debt. Really good brand and margins, best share buyback program ever. Market's still trying to figure out where it fits in the AI ecosystem.
Since March, he's bought this 6 times and it kept moving higher. It's up 26% since the June 25 low of $273. It is losing near-term momentum, for sure, and is vulnerable to a deeper decline. When it does, the stock will pause, and he will continue to buy more, because this is the Mag 7 stock that will stand above the others.
This has gone from the most loved company to probably the most hated. After cash is taken out it is trading at probably 7X earnings. Has a capital allocation policy that is new over the last few months. Right now they are paying about a 3% dividend. Committed to a $60 billion buyback which probably adds 2.5%-3% to shareholder return. Has a 15% free cash flow yield. The opportunity to the upside is that they come out with a product that catches on, in which case it will be a very successful re-emergence. The downside is that it becomes a little bit like Microsoft (MSFT-Q), a sort of utility like vehicle.