MDA Ltd. (MDA-T)

Despite growth profile, people were worried about its debt. Then it demonstrated its cost-saving abilities to one company and just took off. No longer undiscovered. 

Really feeds into growth in the satellite business and space-based Wi-Fi. Lots of opportunity for growth in competition to Starlink. Run up. Better than 93% of companies in the S&P over last 52 weeks, so he wouldn't bet on a significant pullback. Still room to run.

Exciting prospects. Cost of space has dropped so much it really opens up the market. That sector will have very strong tailwinds over the next several decades. Around for 55 years. Leader in space; satellites, sensors, components, Canadarm. Huge backlog. Great topline and bottom line growth. No dividend.

Last month, price, volume, relative strength were all pointing to a breakout to new highs, and now we see that. But a broad corrective phase is coming in 6-8 weeks. But you can start a position now, then add on weakness. Really likes the chart.

Friday saw NASA cut funding for a lot of space programs, significant impact on MDA. On his radar. Really impressive contract wins, revenue growing pretty quickly, sector's been hot. He's invested in companies that depend on government and has been burned before. Be careful.

At the time, there were huge announcements coming, and there was a huge order backlog. Is the only pure-play space tech stock in the world. The space economy is booming and they are perfectly positioned. Are famous for their robotics (Canadarm). The backlog has jumped from $3 billion to $5 billion, and recently raised guidance by 40% revenue and EBITDA growth. Trades at a discount to its US peers. 

Very successful. On his farm team. Has been incredibly resilient going through this downturn. Has a deal with AAPL. Talk of a merger in US would require financing; if markets are a bit better, he'd probably participate.

Parabolic move, which will wash out either in a downtrend or sideways action. Got the pullback, seems to have based, seems to be bouncing off. Resistance around $30. Doesn't look bad, especially in the midst of tariffs, good chance of getting to $30. Have to see if it goes through there.

They make the Canada Arm but the real growth in the satellite business is in low orbit satellites - it is much cheaper. MDA is a leader in this with a big backlog and a lower cost structure. It has done well in this area lately but there is lumpiness in the earnings.

Last few years have seen a resurgence of investment in space. Secured contract to build satellites for AAPL contractor. He's been buying recently, not that expensive. Exceptional long-term growth.

It covers making satellites to software management. It is a great Canadian story and an example of how good Canada can be. It should grow by 30% for three years with great margins and trades at 13 times cash earnings. He is looking for a quick increase in the stock price to $50.    
Buy 6  Hold 2  Sell 0

MDA is not cheap at 37X earnings. But it has nice contract, a competitive edge (barriers to entry), a strong balance sheet and solid growth. EPS should rise at least 33% next year and it has leverage to further contracts. Debt is barely six months' cash flow. Free cash flow was $258M in the last 12 months. The last quarter was very strong and well ahead of estimates. We think $27 would be a good price. 
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