SPDR HOMEBUILDERS ETF (XHB)

The S&P 500 made new highs this week, which might extend today. Big move higher by market leaders, but now those market leaders are breaking down. That suggests that we're approaching the end of the cycle.

The housing recovery isn't a done deal. The key 10-year yield rate will likely be stuck between 4-4.3%. We have budget deficits to worry about stronger growth and fewer rate cuts. Good news is that homeowners have built up a lot of home equity, which could help HD. Also, the XLY discretionary ETF is doing great.

She's very bullish in housing. Last year, when interest rates fell from 8% to 6.1%, homebuying rose 10%. You need to see rates closer to 5% to unleash pent-up demand. There's still a big shortage of homes and homebuilders are under-producing.

Is shorting this. Next week, it may pop if the Fed does nothing.

He's short the homebuilding sector. Home prices are high given rates. Loan applications are nosediving and the macro is exacerbating seasonlity. Doesn't see upside. These stocks are really interest-rate proxies.

Careful, because their largest holdings include Restoration Hardware and Sonoma, so you don't get to the homebuilders like DR Horton until further down the list. He himself prefers the homebuilder, so he prefers ITB. He's very bullish US housing. That said, XHB is still good.

(Top Pick May 5/16, Up 5.63%) The decline took place and he is waiting for confirmation. This could be a good short now. They tend to well from October into February. He is not doing at this time.

How to Play the Housing Market in the US. US housing has already come back. He is not sure there is a whole lot more upside. XH­B-N has the home builders and this is the best way to play that market. It also has other companies that benefit from new home sales. It does not have the lumber companies, however.

SHORT. He is short the home builders from April 27 to Mid June.

(A Top Pick May 5/15. Down 6.83%.) (Short.) Covered his Short before the end of the seasonal period. He had a marginal loss with this trade. US housing starts tend to be very strong from October 28 to Feb 3, and tends to be relatively flat the rest of the year. He was trying to take advantage of that negative time. We have now seen housing starts being very strong, which has helped drive this particular security up. That is a positive signal that the next seasonal trade coming up in October has more of a tendency to work.

US home construction ETF? This is homebuilders, but is also about 5% on appliances, about 20% home renovations, etc. A good one to be in and he really likes what is happening in the US homebuilding market.

An ETF that takes advantage of US housing starts and/or home renovations? One would be iShares DJ Home Construction (ITB-N), or this one as a pure play on homebuilders. Not a bad place to be and you could do very well in the next 2-3 years.

US home construction ETF? This is the name that he would like. It includes some of the retailers as well. If you want more of a pure play, you could look at the iShares US Home Construction (ITB-N) which would be the actual home constructors.