Netflix Inc. (NFLX-Q)

Clearly winning the streaming wars, being pulled upward by increasing number of global subscribers. That's driving pricing power. New ad-supported tier, password-sharing crackdown. Investing in original content. Live sports are generating revenue. No dividend.

Increasing cashflow. Sees 23% earnings growth. Shares are down ~15%.

It's now a momentum story, but now very expensive. A great company. He bought a lot of shares during the sell-off a few years ago when competitors like Prime launched. There are better opportunities in gen AI. They've done a great job in live programming (sports).

They plan to buy Formula One's TV rights, and they are in the best position to leverage more than anybody else buying such rights. Hopes it happens. Flawless execution.

Big numbers last night. Challenge with the streamers is that you're only as good as your last hit. Viewership is quite fickle, very hard to keep attention captured over time. Forward PE ~40x, very rich. 

They delivered a blowout Q4: a big revenue beat and EPS, up 102%, strong margins despite expensive shows. cash flow of $1.38 billion, revenue 16% YOY, and 18.91 million new subscribers vs. the expected 10 million. However, guidance was mixed, with the forecast in the current quarter below expectations, but they slightly raised full-year 2025 in revenue and operating margin. They're running circles around the competition. Their hits: Squid Game 2, Carry-On, and NFL on Christmas Day. Their ad-supported tier accounted for 55% of sign-ups in Q4. This has more momentum than he's ever seen.

There may be more value at Disney, but NFLX is a juggernaut with unstoppable momentum. It will go to $1,000. There was 15% quarterly revenue growth in Q3. Every piston is humming: Squid Games 2, live NFL streaming, women's soccer. Considering ad revenue, 2026 will be even better than 2025.

He stopped out of this last May. He pounced in 2022 when it was selling off. He probably should have kept it. Problem is, a lot of positives are baked into the valuation. It's growing revenue this year faster than in any other. It's the second-best year for subscriber growth. Trades at 40x PE. It's a media/ad business. NFLX has all the momentum in the world. This and DIS will work. Streaming will work in 2025, unlike in previous years.

Bearish. We're well into password-crackdown/sharing and the ad tier. Analysts may be pricing in too many good things to this name than can actually happen.

He's owned this for 24 months and done very well, but you have to wait to enter it now, if you don't own it. This year, their revenue growth accelerated faster than analyst expectations. In 2023, it was 6%, 15% in 2024 and in 2025, he will ring the register. He suspects growth will plateau.

Squid Game 2 and NFL on Christmas Day are coming. Ad tier will add huge cash to their coffers. Great management.

Is up 89% for the year. Investors don't care that analysts were cautious over this stock for its 50x PE.

Still has room to run, given its subscription business.

Stock's done consistently well for really the last couple of years, completely crushing everything in the sector. #1 stock in a sector that's starting to come back. Still one of his top-ranked stocks on RSI for US large-cap stocks. No dividend.

Pretty priced to perfection. He's taken 2/3 of his position off; letting the remaining 1/3 go, as it's had a wonderful run, but putting in stops as it goes. He'd say buy it here around $880, try to get it in the low $800s, and then certainly if you see it down around $750.

They have pricing power. They have 64% earnings growth this year and 46% cash flow growth; only 20% earnings growth for 2025 but he predicts much more.