Stockchase Opinions

Jim Cramer - Mad Money Netflix Inc. NFLX-Q PARTIAL SELL May 16, 2025

To an existing shareholder

Take out your cost basis (take some profits) and let it run.

$1191.530

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 29/24, Up 8%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Until the last couple of weeks, the media sector has held up extremely well. Perhaps investors are thinking this area is not as impacted by tariffs. Correction Feb/March, but already bouncing back.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Their edge is their content library. Doesn't pay a dividend, so be disciplined: if you double your money, sell half. Any business news will punish shares. 

BUY

The chart shows a head and shoulders formation. It's a great, worldwide company that's done many things right. Is up only 5% this year. He likes subscription models.

BUY

It recorded a great quarter last week and last January, but hasn't been immune from this ugly market. But it has made up its recent losses and it up 10.84% this year. They reported a solid revenue beat and monster earnings beat. Also, they didn't sound nervous about the future or the economy. but gave strong guidance for this quarter and reiterated their full-year.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 11/24, Up 72%)

Impressed by last week's quarterly results. Cracking down on password sharing is generating more revenue. Innovating by launching ad-supported versions. Geographic expansion. Aggressive investment in content. Has become a big free cashflow story.

Officially classified as a consumer discretionary stock, but he considers it more akin to a utility. A relatively inexpensive indulgence for the value it offers. Difficult macro headwinds would have minimal impact.

PARTIAL BUY
Wants to buy it, but shares keep going up

Then buy a piece of it, a little, then buy more if it goes down. NFLX may be the best-growing stock in the market.

HOLD

Meets a lot of his criteria but one -- it's not actually a capital-light business. Spends a lot on developing new content. A compounder. Well, and frugally, run. Investors would do well to read about the culture and the CEO. Dominates the space, market leader. Quite a bit of direct competition.

If you got in at favourable prices, stick with it. Strong company. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is that they "interrupt compounding unnecessarily" (paraphrased from Charlie Munger).

BUY

The price target was raised today. Is up 36% this year. It's a permanent compounder. They still own the streaming space, are #1. Looks great. Has so many tailwinds. Is recession resistant.

COMMENT

Is the leader in streaming. But you have to be a little wary of film accounting--you put the cash out front, but accountants will amortize that cost over time. So, earnings don't really reflect the true cash impact on an expanding portfolio of new releases. For a long time, NFLX was challenged on a cost basis, nor producing free cash. This is past and are now producing free cash.