Bank of Montreal (BMO-T)

Tariffs have spurred a flight to safety, and banks can be a good place to be. Level of resistance going way back to 2022, and the stock decided to fall when it reached that level again. Things happen for a reason, investors have memories.

The question is: How much selling will take place? Not a prediction, but worst-case is pullback to ~$130; a 50% chance or greater that it will do that. A near-term trader like him would probably sell now, get back in later. A long-term, buy-and-hold investor would probably just accept the fluctuation.

Possibly the most attractive bank today. Adding recently on its valuation discount. Likes banks with a very strong Canadian position. Trades at 1.2-1.3x book.

A much better choice for new money than TD right now.

A good place to deploy profits from other names.

Biggest bank weighting he has. Fits the bill for a long-term buy and hold, collect the dividend. Likes the expansion potential in the US. Some indigestion with BOTW, but kitchen-sinked the last quarter and stock surged. 

The provision for credit losses has finally peaked. The credit situation has turned the corner and should improve in 2025. Even though there was a big miss the stock started climbing a couple of months ago in the anticipation of a credit turn around,

Broken above resistance, a positive breakout. Also seeing higher lows, which is positive as well. Will probably target the high from 2022.

Q4 earnings results tomorrow at 6 am, he's expecting good things. Worst of the credit provisioning is likely behind them. Almost a national player in the US as well. Great capital markets and wealth management. Diversified geographically and by earnings mix. Integration of BOTW is going nicely.

Taking some profit in the past 2 days as a short-term call coming into earnings. Bank valuations are at high end of traditional range. Yet to see fruition from Bank of the West acquisition. Dividend's safe. Valuation is fine. 

Concerned about earnings growth going forward. Canadian economy has issues. US expansion may be more limited for a while.

Banks have been doing well. US banks have been doing well, so those Canadian banks with US exposure are benefiting too. Accumulating for a few months now, looking great. Resistance at $135, and we're approaching it. If it starts to break $135, technically it would look absolutely fantastic. Next resistance would be around $150. Previous support was around $115.

Note that he manages funds and ETFs for BMO Global Asset Management.

Not doing too much right now. Starting to trend higher, was $150 in 2022. Short term, nice upward trend; we're hitting breakeven on the year, outside of dividends. If it can get back up to $145-150, good possibility it could catch up to the better-performing banks. He owns CM and TD.

Rank #4 in terms of bank assets here, but they lag in the US. Maybe BMO can grow now that TD is capped. It's expensive, but still likes it. However, wait for their next earnings; there could be a further correction.

His preference on price and valuation. A laggard that's seeing its day in the sun. He's neutral on the Canadian banks as a whole. 

It's now cheap, and the bad news has been baked into it. They missed earnings three straight quarters, earlier. That said, the valuation and dividend doesn't make this a bad bet. He still prefers CIBC, but BMO is ownable and pays a decent dividend.

Credit cycles follow interest-rate cycles the way night follows day. Big commercial lending footprint, so credit losses have been larger than expected. Volatile share price. Reasonably pleased with performance. He's holding.