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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT

Outlook for rails as coal is phased out. CP rail still moves a fair bit of thermal coal, which is decreasing. CNR gets more of its revenue from metallurgical coal, which is increasing. Both provide only a small portion of revenues. They also move chemicals, lumber, autos. If you're betting on worldwide economic recovery for many years, as he is, you have to own the railroads. He's a bit nervous about the acquisition of KCS, but if that goes through, could be terrific. Incredible performers over the long term, and no reason this will stop. He owns CNR, but would have no problem holding CP. Keep holding.

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Canadian or US banks, lifecos, car makers, or FANGs? Thinks of best business first, and then country second. His clients own National Bank, TD, RY, and JPM. Best banks with the best management teams. Jaime Dimon at JPM is the very best. In Canada, his favourite is always National, with smart acquisitions and growing in wealth management. All Canadian banks are under-levered. You have to be there.

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Interested in lifecos? Not as much. It's a harder business to figure out. Though as interest rates go up, it is beneficial for the lifecos.
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Pipelines. Not that interested. Scarcity argument is a strong one for putting value on pipelines. They were cheap in 2020, but not now. Also face concern about rising interest rates.
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Canadian housing market. Strong housing market is related to low interest rates. Hard to imagine it getting weaker. Rates will remain historically quite low, but at some point, the BoC rate decision will be reversed. If you can afford it, go ahead. If you can't and you're speculating, good luck to you.
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What's your approach for tech these days? A wrestling match between the markets and interest rates. Everyone is expecting inflation and rates to go higher, which has impacted tech stocks and the darlings in the reopening stocks. He's sticking to his knitting. Invest in the leaders in long-run, lucrative technology runways. At this stage, the runways are a lot longer than he's seen in a while. At least half of the stocks he owns or are on his radar have 20-30-35% upside from current prices. The pullback has provided opportunity.
COMMENT
Any bargains in tech? Yes. There's been a pullback in the IGB, a barometer of SaaS, of almost 40% in some stocks. But it's up almost 2.5% today. Eventually, people will come back. Thankfully, semis and cloud providers have just been treading water. In the 2nd quarter, perhaps we'll see some tech leadership coming from software, semis, and cloud providers.
COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Valuations are contributing to the correction in tech stocks. Tech stocks can do well in a higher rate environment but it must be accompanied by good economic growth. The market rotation could last for another 3-6 months. It is recommended to include some income stocks and to not have all tech stocks. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Welcome to the counter-trend rally. Today, the battered growth tech stocks rebounded (about 1.5%). A trend or a short reprieve? Apple, Amazon and Adobe shares have been hammered, despite strong quarters, because Q1 was all about the Great Reopening, driven by vaccinations.
COMMENT
When rates rise higher because of inflation, that's good for real estate. We're seeing pent-up demand, which bodes well for real estate long term. true, borrowing costs would rise, but in real estate everything is priced off a spread and interest rates are still at generational lows. Also, the yield on publicly available real estate investments remains attractive compared to corporate bond yields. Finally, the US sunbelt still looks good enjoying strong demand (i.e. Tennessee, Florida) based on Americans migrating to cheaper housing prices.
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Market oulook. Expects strong economic rebound. The stimulus will generate economic growth. The numbers will get better for a couple months with earnings upgrades. This should buoy the markets. The Feds have promised support for years to come.
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Bond yields. In the short run, the bond seasonal are good. We have to pay for the stimulus, and the bond supply will dwarf the amount by the Feds through QE. Next quarter is good, the quarter after could be a challenge for fixed income investments. The natural rate of economic growth is anemic. We will not be able to create a type of economic growth without stimulus.
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Monetizing debt. It means quantitative easing, where the interest payments just goes back to the government. It is the same as printing currency.
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Educational Segment. Focusing on the ETF KWEB, Chinese tech stocks. The volatility in Chinese tech stocks has occurred since the ANT group IPO was cancelled following the Jack Ma comments. There has since been some sanctions and fines levied against big name tech companies in China. We are seeing a divergence in BABA stocks since then with it losing a third of its value. Amazon has been sideways. The anti-trust saga is much broader. Would not touch KWEB until it is 10-15% lower. Long term, you do have to like these companies but there will be more shakeout.
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Gold. US dollars has been strong and real returns are a big part of it. Feds need negative real yields for years. Gold will have its day again but the last 6 months have not been great. Was bullish around $1,200 so still likes it.
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