A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)
COMMENT
Crypto currency. We will see some ETH ETFs this week. The ability to speculate in these assets are becoming main street. It could blow the bubble even bigger. Speaks to lack of trust in governments and money printing. Hard to value it.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
Gold. There is real negative interest rates and the imbalance between treasury yields, debt supply and central bank action. Yield curve control is a factor. There will be higher inflation. Crypto is taking money that would have gone into the gold sector.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
Interest rates. The long bond change would change inflation expectations and central banks have less control over this. If longer yields start to take off, there will be stress on lending. Another way for interest rates going up would be the Feds seeing inflation and raising interest rates to correct it. It is a real time experiment. They will probably initiate yield curve control. There is also increasing debt by government and central banks need to monetize debt. If inflation rises significant, it is a huge problem.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
Canadian banks. On a multiple basis, they are not expensive. They are not cheap however. Everything is inflated because of the low cost of money in general. The steepness of the yield curve is largely priced in. It will not get much steeper. There could be a flattening risk but this depends on policy. If yields push up and central banks don't support, then banks could fall.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
Educational Segment. Looking at fixed income's place in portfolios. In a balanced portfolio, based on tolerance, bonds are included. We are looking at a rate of 1.8% for Canadian bonds. However, inflation is 2%. The whole asset class has negative real yields. Government bonds are safety, and corporate bonds are the risk. The yield on high yield is the lowest it has ever been. However the yield does not compensate you for the risk you are taking. Emerging markets is where you will see real returns but risks are higher. There is a big problem in this asset class that has historically kept volatility in your portfolio lower.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
N/A
Market. Economically people are optimistic. Things will get better next year. This is priced in, though. Sentiment is elevated. The first year of a recovery is accelerated and we are past that. At the start of COVID a lot of people went to the sidelines. The next two years will be more volatile. He expects the markets to be higher a year from now but there will be a rocky ride getting there.
John ZechnerUnknown
N/A
Market Frothiness – Correction depth? He thinks where interest rates are and stimulus, you have tail winds. He thinks at 10% you would shake a lot of frothiness out and he would be a more aggressive buyer.
John ZechnerUnknown
N/A
Recommendation for funds taken out of AMZN-Q. He would not exit completely as they are so dominant. They are a major player in cloud. He would look at semiconductors, SMH-N (ETF), Qualcom, Salesforce.
John ZechnerUnknown
BUY
Top 2 or 3 ETFs until 2022. He likes SMH-N - semiconductors. XLF-N still has upside as the financials have underperformed. Canadian banks stick out as well. They are sitting on a whack of cash and have not been able to raise dividends. They will probably take some loan loss provisions back into earnings soon.
COMMENT
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. It’s best not to flip back and forth between growth and value. Growth overall is still preferred in the longer term, but you must be ready for higher volatility. Market rotations can last 3 - 6 months. Things will eventually settle down. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Stockchase InsightsUnknown
COMMENT
There are two markets, one thriving, the other tumbling today. The old-fashioned cyclicals are roaring, the boom stocks. In contrast, there are stocks bought by the young drawn in by Robinhood fee-free trades. There's no crossover. Ingersoll Rand? Honeywell? Wells Fargo? Too boring to the younger generation who want excitement like Tesla. Also, Zoom, cruise stocks and SPACs have been killed lately.
COMMENT
Oil stocks and renewables. Likes renewables a lot. Have likes Algonquin but it is now expensive. Oil stocks are unbelievably cheap. A year ago, their balance sheets were a mess. However, the balance sheets are now looking good and valuations are good. Suncor is the best among the large players. Arc and Whitecap are looking good. The caveat is that you need a higher commodity price and the supply side usually responds.
Greg NewmanUnknown
COMMENT
Canadian dollar. There is a definite boon in the commodity prices, and yield is higher than US bonds. The Canadian dollar can go up more. He would buy the US listed Canadian companies that are inter-listed, rather than converting US dollars to Canadian. The CAD will probably continue to go up steadily.
Greg NewmanUnknown
COMMENT
Market outlook. Before dot com ended in tears, there were lots of run up. There is a compelling case how bitcoins can work. It is a very binary thesis. It could worth zero if it is not widely adopted. There are pockets of froth and it is a crowded market. People are universally bullish, which is concerning. The better view is that the markets will grind higher in the next year.
Greg NewmanUnknown
COMMENT
Recovery. Economic recovery is going well. Data is showing positive moves, savings rates are super good and interest rates are retracing. The crisis has led to lots of innovation and productivity gains. 2023 estimates before the crisis were actually worse than 2023 estimates following the crisis due to productivity gains and lower interest rates.
Greg NewmanUnknown
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