A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Oil. Higher oil prices are viewed favourably in Canada but eventually, higher energy prices will cause higher commodity prices and ultimately drag the economy. It is part of the dynamic of the current environment. However, central banks want inflation right now.

50-day moving average. The change in what the treasury is doing with their cash, in the short run, will give us a boost. However, we will have to pay for the support eventually and this will push down asset prices. The Feds keep pushing the debt further and further down. The real infrastructure bill will be the real stimulus.

Market. He does not think there is too much euphoria in the markets. He is a big bull on the market this year. A lot of the tech gains from 2020 will continue. The Nov/Dec announcements about vaccines were like D-day moments in our war against the virus. He thinks we will move into better economics and open very safely later this year. The commodities are looking as healthy as they have in the past 4-5 years.

Semiconductor space. Everything is moving digital. As we move through 5G and do edge computing we will just continue to see this power continue. The leader is NVDA-Q in this space. See his Top Picks today. It is a good sector to have a look at.

Markets are rallying high, but investors should be careful of being overextending. There are many drivers now. He still expects a vaccine glut in Q2. The reopening trade is led by Disney. Also, the housing boom, industrials are rising, the price of oil keeps rising, banks are enjoying a climbing yield curve. New, younger investors feel empowered. And SPACs push stocks higher. Higher, there are vulnerabilities here: Covid still needs to be tamed. Rising rates will stop the housing boom. Industrials rally only if employment pick up. Rising oil prices will lead to the Saudis pumping more oil. New stockbuyers can run out of targets to run up (i.e. GameStop). And SPAC valuations can get out of control from a low quality glut.

The real story is about the reset that everyone is talking about. We are 4 years late since Clinton would have participated if she were elected then. Those who hold gold control the system. This week, Swift announced they are signing up with the yuan to do trading on the system. This is a signal that the monetary reset is coming. The Chinese hold the most gold right now. The value of the money supply will be used to reset the system since we cannot pay for the current debt. He advises his clients to build positions in precious metals as a hedge.

Gold. Why is gold being manipulated? Because gold is being depressed, we are not questioned what is being done with the value of money. Looking at history, the net results of central bank policy has always been the same. They are losing control of the long term yield curve. Copper is breaking out because currencies are devaluing as well. There is a storm on the horizon.

ETFs. You want to make sure ETFs own the underlying stocks and they are not futures contracts. If the institution that has issued these futures contracts disappear, the ETF has no value. Instead, he prefers to own stocks directly or ETFs that own their stocks. .

Working from home has increased demand on data and telecom systems. Demand on networks has increased dramatically and not stopping any time soon. Looking out 3-4 years, we'll probably double amount of data created in all of history. Data centres, cloud computing, cell tower storage will all increase to keep up with consumption demand and bandwidth.

With equities at historically high multiples, is it hard to find value? Yes. Multiples climbed dramatically in 2020. So he wants to focus on earnings growth and dividend growth. A good place to be if there are any hiccups in the recovery, but also to gain leverage to an accelerating economy.

What about the Biden plan for infrastructure? The new stimulus package will have trouble passing. Biden has touted infrastructure spending a lot. We'll have to see how much progress is made in infrastructure. In the US, building infrastructure doesn't depend on federal intervention, as states can enter into public-private deals, and many have already done so.

A company that might benefit from EV and installing charging stations? There is ChargePoint, but you're paying 10x sales. Charging stations will be monetized eventually and very competitive. He prefers to go through the renewable energy developers, as they have estabished track records, are cashflow positive, and without astronomical valuations.

Is the Reddit episode behind us? He hasn't wasted a lot of effort on that circus sideshow. It's almost an idealogical crusade, rather than about the money. They're playing Russian roulette, but one spin away from the lights going out. Hopefully it's over, and now everyone can go back to focusing on fundamentals and macroeconomics.