A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Canadian banks today. Likes the Canadian banks on any day that ends in "y". Owns 3 of them as core holdings, and expects they will be for years to come. Stable oligopoly, great governance, great franchises diversified by geography and line of business, probably another year of record profits. Continue to own and buy.
COMMENT
Markets - worry vs. moving higher. It's true. A lot of people spend time chasing their tails worrying about the next crash. Corporate profits grow alongside the economy, and so markets make new highs. The pandemic recession was nasty and broad, but short, followed by a swift recovery with strong housing, record sales, strong industrial production, employment gains. Stocks aren't really that expensive. One of the most stable metrics of value is book value. TSX trades at 2.2x book value, a bit of a premium to 35-year historical average of 1.9x. But you have to look at what you're getting in ROE, which is pretty strong right now with the TSX cranking out about 11% of ROE. Market is fairly valued, so we should have returns in line with long-term averages, which are high single digits. His job is to try to beat the average by identifying stocks, sectors or themes that the market is mispricing.
COMMENT
OSFI restrictions being lifted? Tough call to say when handcuffs will come off. Probably after October, but a chance that it will be pushed out to 2022. When you buy quality businesses, you're not renting them for a day or a week. You own them for the long term. So whether the dividend increase comes in November, or not until January, is neither here nor there.
COMMENT

Financial planning for your TFSA. Look at portfolio construction, risk management, asset allocation, and income planning. TFSA is the most tax advantaged form of account that exists in Canada. Put your highest expected return securities in that portfolio. Don't let cash just sit in your TFSA, as those dollars should be working hard for you. Flipside of return is risk, and the two go hand in hand. Do your homework, and buy if you have conviction. CURLF is an example of an equity that would fit a TFSA. See today's Top Picks for 3 more suggestions.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Best not to try to manage short term volatility through changes in strategy. Could think of using some bonds and cash as well as gold. Gold gives some diversification away from slow-growth bonds. Tech, consumer staples and healthcare will hold up well in difficult times. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
The fear-mongering inflationistas were wrong today: July's inflation number was lower than expected, so there's no need to fear a hike in interest rates. Those naysayers are wrong and the Fed's Jay Powell is right. The lower inflation number lifted markets to fresh highs today...As for the Delta variant, it will likely dampen the outlook of airlines, hotels and others in the travel sector. However, the rise in hospitalizations is not as high as cases...Oil and used car prices--bellwethers of inflation--are stabilizing.
COMMENT

A great risk to stock investors is government (globally) is becoming more active in regulation, namely anti-trust and privacy. He's paying attention to payment systems. The pandemic may be a catalyst for long-term change. How are companies investing their cash in innovating techniques. The next phase of innovation is how to apply A.I. and A.R. into banking, medical, education and industrial companies. He looks for businesses actively investing in the future, into technology. Google, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon are morphing into greater vertical operations. Keep an eye on them. Canadian banks will keep up with tech; they are very well run and are the leaders in digital tech. Rather, the big risk is how to grow their Canadian franchises while competing in the U.S.

COMMENT
Question on GLXY-T He won't comment on GLXY itself. He will say in general that global governments will regulate digital currencies. We're in the wild west now where brokers make big returns, because the business is opaque. As transparency rises and big companies enter, it'll be harder to earn the same high returns. The wild west will end.
COMMENT
He's sick of pinning the current rally on the Fed's so-called easy money policies. This is idiocy. Rather, business is good in America--retailers making money from child tax credits, retailers prospering, and the infrastructure bill that will become law sooner than you think.
COMMENT
Gold. Highlighted the disappointment in gold in the past weeks. The compelling nature of negative real yields means gold should be significantly higher than it has been. In 2011 and 2012, we had seen a similar divergence to develop before gold broke down. Thinks there is one more move to the upside but disappointing for gold bulls. Short term, it is a buying opportunity but increasingly, it will be difficult for it to sustain above $2000.
COMMENT
The disinflation aspect of the recovery versus the risk on markets. Gold weakens because inflation expectations came down. We will surely not go back to massive lockdowns. There are ripple effects on inflation expectations due to the delta variant and new wave.
COMMENT
In October or November, they will run out of extraordinary measures. Congress needs to pass new budget bills and raise debt ceilings. It will be messy for a couple months. Equities should not be sent into a tailspin but it is not bullish.
COMMENT
Educational Segment. Seasonal patterns are most powerful in markets when there is a fundamental catalyst that sets it up. We have had a strong market in the past couple months. When we get into seasonal weakness, there is a good reason to pull back. Monetary policy has been behind the strong earnings. The debt is a perennial problem. Seasonality points to weakness in the next little while. Market breadth is starting to decay. There is a perfect storm brewing. The last 5% correction was in February and we can revisit this over the next couple months.
N/A
Market. Earnings is the biggest driver. COVID is still a driver, but it feels like investors are looking to the eventual end to COVID. The rates market has been pretty interesting, based on the level being so low and the volatility seems a little high. There are structural reasons that rates can stay low. His view is that with demographics and labour markets, as people retire and there are fewer people in the workforce, and considering the demographic curve in China, it could weight on rates. Debt is in a weird way deflationary as in when you are tapped out how much more can you borrow. His company is taking a diversified view to the markets. He has holdings that will do well if interest rates remain low – renewable energy (European), which did not do well this year, and clean technology names in solar, hydrogen and electric vehicles, are starting to recover. For real estate he is positioned for a continued growth in E-commerce.
BUY
Renewable Energy: He likes this space. His value proposition in the renewable space is that he is giving access to global leaders, even if they trade in Europe. It is safer to play bigger companies.
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