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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
In September, we started to see fear of tapering and supply chain problems. China is also having growth problems. Now we are coming into earnings season. This is the calm before the storm. There will be downward pressure if there is tapering. If earnings do not grow at 20-25%, then there can also be a further downward movement.
COMMENT
October to October returns tend to do better than calendar year returns. The biggest market corrections occur in September or October. You enter a market that had a sell off with better prices. Earnings are also positive so it tends to be a good time to step into the market. Time of year he wants to buy. Works about 3 out of 4 years.
COMMENT
Invests in businesses so does not look at particular sectors. Doesn't like to correlate or rotate. Invests in the long run. Every quarter, the cashflow should grow and dividends should grow. Asides from the tech sector, there has been sell offs in the small caps and other parts of the S&P500 that are down 30% from their highs. There are opportunities. Pays attention to portfolio percentage weightings.
COMMENT
If there are doubles in your portfolio, they may have risen too fast, too much so take some profits. Try to rebalance so you can invest with proper allocations.
COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The energy rally probably still has some legs to it. A consolidation is not unexpected but it seems oil prices could stabilize around $70 to $80. This could lead to shareholder value being increased through dividends or buybacks. Maintaining proper sector allocation is the best way forward. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Technical analyst Larry Williams says to buy at the end of October or start of November Autumnal seasonality is coming to an end. So start buying? No so fast. Technician Larry Williams's 2021 forecast so far has been dead on, foreseeing dips in April and mid-July and not. Williams forecasts upside near the end of October and will continue to rally through the end of the year. From 1923-2020, rallies begin on October 29. Williams says buy on the 22nd day of trading in October, which in 2021 means November 1. So, buying on November, based on Williams' data also reports rewards.
COMMENT
Markets. He tends to be a cautious investor, not to say that he's negative. Stocks do well in expansions, but there are always corrections. Stocks aren't cheap, but interest rates are low and unlikely to soar. Wage inflation is low. Wage inflation is good for consumer spending. Growth has peaked, but it's still a tailwind. Global lockdowns are easing, so this should lead to an end of supply chain issues and to a moderating of inflationary expectations. Most of the inflation we're seeing is in durable goods, which will ease when lockdowns ease. There's lots of household liquidity, supporting demand for goods and services. An expanding economy is good for stocks.
COMMENT
Investor timeframes. He's a long-term investor, doesn't get too worried about headline news. There's a lot of fast money moving around. Concerns about China, inflation, and debt ceilings can all cause volatility. Stocks did well coming out the pandemic, but people are getting more selective. Now that we're mid-cycle, investors need to be mindful of quality instead of quantity. Make sure you have your risk parameters in place. Don't get over your skis, overly aggressive, investing in companies like cryptocurrencies that don't make any money. Mid-cycle currents can cause ripple effects, so make sure you stick to good quality businesses.
COMMENT
Good quality businesses. Those that touch people's lives on a daily business. Banking, info tech, delightful products and services that people use over and over again. Such as DIS, MCD, online shopping, or a desire to get access to information quickly. You're not going to innovate away these cornerstones.
COMMENT
Markets. Feels like we're starting to get a more permanent rotation from growth to value. Started earlier this year, growth came back over the summer, but now the switch is continuing. An analogy is when we saw a rolling top in tech in 2000, and then there was a huge divergence in performance.
COMMENT
For the remainder of the year, investors will have to be more discerning. Last year, all you had to do was buy the market and things just went up. This year, you can't just blindly throw money at the market. Stuff with crazy valuations will be down over the next years. There are also a lot of great opportunities for upside if you're picking the right spots. He's always looks for really good businesses that are at a discount to intrinsic value. This will add value over time.
COMMENT
Sectors right now. Oil and gas. It went through a 10-year bear market. Look at free cashflows and earnings. Valuations are really cheap and compelling. Seeing insider buying. Stocks are moving up and starting to outperform. We'll see a lot more outperformance over the next year in the sector. A cyclical sector that presents compelling opportunities from time to time, as in 1999. You have to really dig down and understand the sector and the fundamentals.
COMMENT
Tech outlook. Tech will underperform over the next year. What tech you do own, make sure it has good underlying free cashflow support, like with a MSFT.
COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Technology and healthcare are looking good. Industrials and consumer discretionary also is a sector they like. Tech focused companies are preferred, even in sectors like industrials. Proper diversification is the best way to go. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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