Market Commentary — Page 426

Market Commentary

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Top 15 Buzzing Stocks this Week

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Positioning, when bear/bull calls are split 50/50. Expect more market volatility, as seen in the last few months. 87% invested in two dozen tech vendors and end users, coupled with a 61% short equity indices overlay (hedge) on the invested stock portfolio. The hedge protects the portfolio if the stock market were to deteriorate. He has laddered NASDAQ put options. That hedge will incrementally grow as the delta on those put options starts to grow.

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Upside missed with hedges in place? It's like an insurance policy, which has a premium attached to it. The beta in the stock market is greater than the beta on the hedge. As the market continues to melt up, he makes money, though perhaps not as much as the NASDAQ. Their benchmark, chosen by the OSC, is 50/50 NASDAQ/Russell, so it gets both sides of the cyclical/growth play. He doesn't make as much, but he's certainly protected on the downside. If the downside is more than 5-10%, the hedge makes money for his fund.

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Tech sub-sectors. Bullish calls: he's overweight on semiconductor foundries, designers, integrated manufacturers both on memory and analog. Also overweight on the cloud stacks from AMZN to MSFT and GOOG, and the platform players that use the various infrastructures, plus SaaS. He's underweight on the gaming side and perhaps neutral on social media.

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Price targets and selling. When a stock gets within 5-7% of his price target, he starts to take some profits. You have to be disciplined. Have a price at where you're going to enter, but also have a stop on top of that.

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Stock weighting. He never holds more than a 6% weighting of a single stock in his portfolio. Once it gets up to 5%, he starts to take some money off the table. There are lots of other stocks on his shopping list to buy with the proceeds.

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Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. If interest rates rise, utilities, real estate ,communications and tech tend to be weak. Dividend stocks also decline as there are alternatives. However, markets have done well when rates were rising. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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He expects the urban exodus to continue, driven by the spike in cases from the Delta variant. The homebuilding business continues to boom with supply not meeting demand. Remember that interest rates are absurdly low with mortgage broker backed up and struggling to meet demand.

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It's harder this year to find underfunded sectors, making it hard for ETF investors. Many sector rose rapidly starting last November (along with the market). It's hard to find value, but he is not selling assets. He's holding onto all his U.S. assets. His cash and bonds sits at 40%. He expects the market to rise. Also expects U.S. companies to buyback shares and raise dividends, because they sit on mountains of cash. For example, he bought US oil (not Canadian) last fall. Beyond FAANGs, US stocks are fairly valued. He's fine buying a broad market index of the S&P. Be ready for volality; he's been waiting for a 15% pullback in the past 6 months (which hasn't happened).

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Do you use puts to sell or buy stocks and generate income? He doesn't sell puts for income, because a BMO ETFs already do this for you. Why? His clients don't understand puts. Also, people who do sell puts for income leverage heavily which makes their puts very risky. He never leverages.

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Tax-efficient US or Canadian ETF that pays no or low dividends? Look at a total-return swap-based ETF, like what Horizons offers. You don't get paid a dividend, but rather it goes into the total return. Last year, CRA was examining such swap ETFs. Look at the CRA site for updates about this.

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No Berman's Call today due to the public holiday and markets being closed.

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Oil has recovered almost all the losses from the OPEC fears. OPEC production will use up spare capacity shortly. Demand growth is not faltering. Energy stocks have sold out since the OPEC meetings that has not come back. Key message is that the amount of free cashflow these companies are generating, every day that oil trades above $70 is a good day. Be a bit more patient. Companies will start messaging about what they are going to do with their free cashflow.

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We are seeing some large caps such as Shell or Chevron doing some share buy backs with their free cashflow but not many in the sector have started messaging about their plans.

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Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Would look at tech, industrial and consumer discretionary in the near term. We can most likely expect a drift up in the next few months. Interest rate and inflation fears are going away. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

🔒 Premium Content Alert – This buzzing stock opinion is accessible only to Stockchase Premium

Top 15 Buzzing Stocks this Week(A Commentary)

Positioning, when bear/bull calls are split 50/50.(A Commentary)

Upside missed with hedges in place?(A Commentary)

Tech sub-sectors.(A Commentary)

Price targets and selling.(A Commentary)

Stock weighting. (A Commentary)

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

Do you use puts to sell or buy stocks and generate income?(A Commentary)

Tax-efficient US or Canadian ETF that pays no or low dividends?(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.(A Commentary)

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