A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The best strategy is to not wait for the perfect time to purchase good companies. Stock prices for these companies may fall in a market correction, but good companies tend to recover quickly from market events. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Market outlook. Important to be optimistic about the economy. We are out of the shortest recession ever. Economic cycles tend to run for several years. It makes sense to be involved primarily in cyclical businesses. What makes sense last year and now is not the same. They are shifting towards higher quality companies. Want to avoid the strong performers that came back from near death.
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Industrials and tech. With the economy coming back to life, capital spending should increase. Industrials is a good place to be. Process control, HVACs, and semiconductors are places to look at. In terms of tech, software investment should do well, such as Microsoft and Adobe.

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Financials and interest rates. The really hard work of interest rates rising from near zero to more normal levels may be largely over. Rates might go higher but the curve tends to flatten when Feds start to taper. Financials have the ability to grow. we have most likely seen the maximum steepness of the curve.
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Sectors to avoid. Avoiding the defensive spaces. Have no investments in utilities. Not a place to be since it outperforms and only outperforms by not going down as much in a bear market. Getting exposure to the expanding economy is important.
COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Technology, industrials and consumer discretionary are the areas that are expected to outperform in the coming months. A drift up in the markets are expected and corporate earnings remain good. There is a lot of cash on the sidelines that will be deployed when time comes. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Market headwinds. After 6 consecutive monthly gains, concerns will be more inflated. We'll have to watch the Delta variant, and some of the aggressive Chinese regulatory actions can certainly keep the market in check. August and September are seasonally weak. Seeing volatility. Vaccination rates continuing to climb. The race between the Delta variant and vaccination rates will determine how equity markets will do over the next several months. Macro economic outlook is quite favourable because of massive fiscal stimulus, tremendous amount of global household savings, and continued low interest rates. These provide a positive backdrop for the global economy and for equity markets.
COMMENT
Stock-picking in this environment. Always look for strong secular growth companies, with high quality attributes, trading at fair or reasonable valuation. Tactically, you want to be in cyclicals like financials, materials, energy, and consumer discretionary over defensives like consumer staples and utilities. Likes the US for depth and breadth of high quality names. Europe looks attractive from a relative valuation discount. Covid numbers dropping in the UK. In Canada, likes financials, energy, and materials.
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Rich valuation of US equities. Parts of the US market do look rich, such as less mature tech names. Price to sales measure of the S&P Tech sector is back to 2000 levels, and we know what happened after that, so you have to watch out. Some tech names he'll continue to hold and add to, but some areas are looking expensive. It's the job of portfolio managers to choose the names and sectors that make sense for their clients.
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Owning the tech giants. AAPL has underperformed the broader S&P 500 index since last fall. Great balance sheet, but perhaps not enough EPS growth at 9%. You want to see strong revenue growth, and looking back 5 years, AAPL's is only about 4%. High margins let it do well. Is this sustainable? Ahead of AAPL, he'd prefer FB, GOOG, MSFT, or AMZN, which all have higher revenue growth and each of which he owns.

COMMENT

Fast food stocks. Doesn't see a ton of dividend growth ahead in QSR. Even though there's growth in Popeye's, it provides only 11% of total revenues, so it will be hard to affect the whole company. It will perform OK, but have to keep our eyes on the Delta variant. Yield is about 3.3%, and thinks it's secure. Instead, he'd suggest SBUX on a pullback, DPZ or YUMC (which he owns).

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Clean energy ETFs. ICLN is the go-to clean energy ETF in the US, well diversified. For CAD, look at the ZCLN, which is very similar. Some of these ETFs have fallen over the last few months, but now are stabilizing and moving higher. One of the mega-trends. Watch that most stocks have already priced in positive moves, where the average PE of the stocks is about 52x. Be careful of valuations.

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Canadian tech names. Canadian space if fairly limited. There's SHOP, CSU, OTEX and that's about it. Maybe also BB. Look to the US and Asia for tech names. Loves FB and GOOG. Clampdown in China is presenting opportunities. Try NVDA, TSM, MSFT, MA. Some of these names make a lot of sense when you look at the valuation.

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Possibility of paper tantrum? Future interest rate moves won't be a shock to the economy. The Fed is telegraphing well. Rates will remain lower for longer. Inflation is transitory at this point. It will be higher today and next year, but this is due to economic restart not economic recovery, two different things. With a restart, supply is constrained as demand moves higher. With a recovery, supply remains high and demand goes down and starts to move higher. Doesn't see hyper-inflation in this part of the world.
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US financials. Likes the US financials, such as JPM. It has great management and execution, yield of 2.35%. He owns some of the European financials like UBS, as well as HSBC, PRU, and WFC.

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