A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Educational Segment. What is your favorite indicator. He has no one favourite indicator that makes it easy for everyone. There are lots of them. Some work 50% of the time and others work the other 50% of the time. You have trend, momentum, seasonal and cycles, breath, sentiment, chart patterns and volume indicators. He likes to take one from each area; MC Oscillator is one he likes. It looks at breadth of market – those going up vs those going down and looks at momentum. It always lines up with market bottoms and turning points. It says the market is so oversold that the potential for a turn is indicated. It does not say how far or how long the market will go up.

Santa Claus Rally. They are going to do a deal and raise taxes on the rich a little. They need major structural and tax reform. He doesn’t see those reforms being made. We get sideways at best 2013. Thinks there is an earnings shock coming.

Markets. Triple-digit gain today. Since he was last on, we are down from 5 overhangs to 3. Europe is in an official recession, Fiscal Cliff and China’s reduced economic growth.

There are ways to play the fiscal cliff positive commentary. It is worth being fully invested at this point but in a risk adjusted way. For China, it is a very reasonable rate of growth. The infrastructure build that is happening will help out some of the multinationals.

Companies with exposure to Europe have come off and you can get better valuations.

Markets. We have been trading along the same level for about 3 years. It is not unusual to see drops like this November, almost a dozen times in the last couple of years. He has been selling off a few things – 20-30% in cash now. The sell off brought us down to a normal range. In September there was a breakout and he had a 25% turnover that month. He has turned over his portfolio complete once this year. Buy and Hold has not worked for 5 or 6 years. We are at 2006 levels in the market.

From ’09 to present there seems to be a head and shoulders on the TSX but he thinks it is not valid over that long of a timeframe. This should also be looked at on an individual stock basis and for about 6 months.

Markets. News that fiscal cliff talks were constructive. China will be 7 or 8% growth. Enough fiscal cliff. Thinks it will be fixed before end of year. Senior heads will make the right decisions. When that happens you will see the markets explode on the upside. The oil and gas sector is really cheap and there is a disconnect between oil and gas service companies and the commodity price. Prefers oil service group because they pay high dividends.

Markets. Seeing a fair amount of fear in the markets but seeing a couple of bull markets. Commodities have been in a bull market since 2001/2002. There are only two in youthful bulls. Lumber bottomed in ’09 and Nat Gas last year. If you want to get attached to the boom, then gravitate to those two.

There are a couple of Canadian financials that are leading. He feels they are still leading. Even lifecos are starting to recover now. As long as the financials are showing strength, the bull market is in tact. Advances less Declining stocks are a good indication of market breadth. Peaked in March. Recent sell off has brought the S&P down but not so much the advance/decline line and that it is because of lack of bids, rather than pressure on selling, which is a temporary situation.

GOLD. In a 12 year bull rally, has been consolidating for the last year. Most of the easy money has been made. It is extended. The latter half of 2011 and first half of 2012 is a descending triangle. Gold may have a little upside.

S&P – Where is the support. Starting 2010, he wave counts and gets 5. The points in 2011 are very important. Support was at 1345. The next support is 50 points below that. He thinks we should have a rally soon.

Markets. Lots of good buying opportunities. He is seeing better value in income securities than in a long time,. In this market there is some downside risk. Align yourself with companies with good management and strong balance sheets and can take advantage of good buying opportunities also. Some investors are selling US dividend stocks because of the possible increase in capital gains tax in the US. Thinks there will be some consolidation opportunities coming. Thinks we can’t get pushed over the fiscal cliff. Either it will be permanent put into place over the next month or they will kick the can down the road.

Markets. We thought when we got through the election that the market would focus on fiscal cliff. When there is uncertainty, people aren’t willing to pay high prices. Through the end of the summer he positioned pretty defensively. Growing dividend yields is a key theme. He is very defensively positioned and has some cash. Short term pullbacks can turn into longer term declines. His view is that we are at risk of hitting a stall speed in the recovery. Europe hasn’t helped. 7:1 companies guided lower recently.

Rare Earth Companies: it would take an awful lot for him to buy in this sector. This is not the time to bottom fish here. One of the weakest performing groups in the market. Bottom fishing is not his specialty.

Markets. Market was upset today. Eurozone is in recession but we already knew that. Retail sales figures were on expectation. After Obama’s speech it went down and he thinks it is mostly fiscal cliff. Thinks his speech should have been taken as a positive but it wasn’t. Is surprised it came off as much as it did. His long term strategy calls for better US housing, slow but positive growth after you avert the fiscal cliff. He has some cash and will soon make some long term purchases.

Markets. Canada’s budget won’t be balanced for another year. Our real estate bubble is in the early stages of collapsing. We are going to be in for a tough time on the government revenue line. Home prices will slide by about 30% in some areas.

Markets. Now that the election is over we know who is in power. Both parties are aware that they cannot put the US back into recession. When they have a deal, she expects the market to take off if we see positive signs. She had trimmed some positions. She is not rushing back into the market but did some specific buying. She has a watch list and when there is an overreaction to something, she takes an initial position.