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Sirius XM Canada Holdings IncXSR.TOCOMMENTJun 05, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
Sell? When something has moved down and an offer comes to take it out, the offer is always below where you bought it. The terms of this are pretty luridly textbook style of a powerful inner circle who has devised some methodology that serves them, and the little guy is going to get trodden on. He is hoping that more money will be able to be cranked out of the offer.
Currently in the midst of a takeover attempt by the US parent company. They bid $4.50 a share, but because there is a cash share split, it is sort of in the implied price of $4.80-$4.85 range. He doesn’t think this is acceptable, and feels it is worth far more. The US parent had been using coercive tactics to drive down the price, and are now trying to make an opportunistic bid at a very low price. He intends to vote against this transaction in the upcoming vote.
Have been approached on a preliminary basis about a transaction to take them private, but thinks the problem is that the price range is lower than what people were expecting. It scores well on valuations, so the buyer at this price is potentially getting a good deal. Trading around 7X Price to Free Cash Flow. There might not be a lot more upside from here.
The stock is down with this bear market. He doesn’t expect anything dramatic to happen by way of growth. This is going to continue to be held by some key investors, and will continue to pay a good dividend. It also pays special dividends. This is kind of a sensible stock without fabulous fire in it.
His fear was of too many potential disruptors in this area, and he wasn’t sure that they could deliver. He would be tempted to be more of a seller than a buyer even though the yield is attractive. Technology is changing quickly in automobiles, and if car companies start giving away access to this type of service, it is going to be very hard to convince people to pay for it.
Recently announced a special dividend, but the price dropped before the ex dividend date. Sometimes stocks don’t get rewarded, or it gets priced in advance when people start speculating. The company’s business has changed quite a bit in the past 5 years. They have merged, and it has become more of a monopolistic structure. Have more pricing power and less competition, and the cash flow has gone up, so they are returning some of that cash to shareholders, which he likes. Where this falls apart for him is the long-term nature of the business. There is so much change going on in the media space. It is hard to say whether this is going to win, or if your car is going to be connected to the Internet, and you will be streaming things.