Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM)

DON'T BUY

Totally a growth story. Trading at about 38X forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 2.5X. Forecast to grow their earnings at 16%-17% which is about double of the traditional grocery stores. Very expensive.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 9/12. Up 18.8%.) Valuation is getting a little bit up there for him at the mid-$30 PE level. This could be an opportunity for him to take some profits. Still likes it long-term.

COMMENT

Likes their business model. Have done a better job of looking at their stores and their formats. There is a lot of good growth in this one. Not a cheap stock, trading at almost 30X earnings.

BUY

Likes Whole Foods. Paying 30x PE which is a bit high, but you are paying the premium because you are paying for a brand name. They are going to be increasing their dividends in the futures and possibly the buybacks as well. Long term trend is to natural foods. They will still be looking for the dense neighborhoods, and are starting to bring in lower priced items in order to reach a broader market.

.

WAIT

Jumped on stock split news. If you want to buy it, wait for it to get into $99 territory and buy at $85-$90. This stock is really over valued at this point.

COMMENT

Loves this one long-term. This is definitely one of the secular growth stories. 17%-18% long-term growth. Reported some decent earnings today but on the revenue side it was a little bit lighter. Looking to take a small hit based on what is happening with the super storm Sandy, which might hurt their sales in the next little while.

COMMENT

A very rapidly growing company. Has grown organically with a lot of new stores. Trading at around 35X earnings and will grow its earnings at about 15% next year. If they ever have a hiccup, this is the kind of stock that will get punished in a big way. High-end retailer so if there is a recession you may see people being a little more penny wise conscious. Prefers others.

DON'T BUY

That class of companies that always seems to do pretty well but he has never been able to pull the trigger on it because it is too expensive.

TOP PICK

The largest US retailer of organic and natural foods. A very strong secular growth opportunity. Consumers are continually looking for more health conscious foods and switching to more organic and natural food offerings. Estimated growth rate is 20%.

BUY
Has such great brand equity that people just want to shop there and are willing to pay higher prices.
DON'T BUY
Organic foods was a trend that got way overvalued. Opened up stores like crazy and it turned out the market, particularly in recessionary times, was not there.
RISKY
Loves the stores, and used to own the stock. It is a speculative stock but he feels that it will make it.
SELL
As a concept and a store he thinks they are great. As a stock he would be a little bit wary. Earnings were a little bit below what was expected but sales were stronger than expected. They charge premium prices and in a slowing economy people may go elsewhere. Competition will be getting greater. Would sell for the moment.
TOP PICK
Perfectly positioned in the long-term trend towards wealthier consumers paying more for better quality food. This one is the leader in the consumers’ mind. Likes its multiple of 1 X sales. A long-term hold.
DON'T BUY
Wonderful quality foods, but you need a big wallet. Trading at about 25 or 30 X earnings, which is very expensive. Slower growth.
Showing 16 to 30 of 33 entries