Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO)

19.62

+0.07 (0.36%)

as of Oct 30, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Closed.

997 watching

COMMENT

WCP buying TORC Oil Like with Suncor, we've had a relief rally in oil and cyclicals. Instead of vibrant competition in this industry, all this pressure on oil will reduce this space to a handful of names. He's looking for the highest free-cash flow producers at their lows. WCP gets stronger with this merger and should see a valuation bump. He'dd love to see WCP easily go 50-100% higher, but this will happen only if money outside the sector drives it. This is why he won't buy WCP now. CNQ is a safer play, more certain that CNQ will make money in the next 12 months. That said, if the price of oil rises, WCP will certainly surge.

TOP PICK

The deal with Torc is positive. The stock price was re-rated and it has gone up. They have first mover advantage and have an edge in the space. 13% free cashflow yield at $50, 25% at $60. A good name to own in the small-mid-cap range. They are a net-zero emitter with their carbon injection technology. (Analysts’ price target is $5.41)

BUY

WCP vs. CPG Both are good given strong sector rotation coming back to energy. Owns WCP for the dividend and growth potential.

DON'T BUY

Unlikely dividend will increase. None of these companies are gushing cashflow, credit risk profiles are not strong, and most aren't investment grade. This one is small, and general investors want exposure through the largest and most diversified names.

TOP PICK

The mid-cap names are where you really want to focus. They have done a good job of taking advantage of the pandemic and doing MNA. It will be one of the first names to profit from money coming back to the sector. They could gain even bigger scale and be re-rated by multiple. Currently trading at 16-30% free cashflow yield. (Analysts’ price target is $3.57)

DON'T BUY

6-month outlook? It's hanging in there, but they have issues in capital and investor aversion against all oil stocks. WCP didn't manage this year's downturn as well as it should. He's less enthralled with it now than before. WCP needs more than six months and more like 18-24 months to see a real rise in the stock. WCP is okay.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 15/19, Down 33%) The stock is down 53% year to date. They were not rash in the beginning of the year. They only cut dividends by 50% compared to others who slashed them or cancelled completely. A good executer of mergers and acquisitions. There is insider buying, dividend, and good balance sheet. A net negative emitter due to their CO2 injection project so it is good for ESG investors. Trading at 3.9x next year and 20% free cashflow yield.

TOP PICK

They recently made an acquisition. The ability to transact is important and the stock has done well. They will continue to be active in mergers and acquisitions. A 20-30% cashflow yield. (Analysts’ price target is $3.55)

DON'T BUY

Gas is doing better than oil. The gas price has helped propel gas companies from the bottom. He would prefer CNQ or other high quality companies.

TOP PICK

Trading at a 25% free cashflow yield. They can increase their dividend next year. He expects it to be a consolidator to add more inventory depth. He sees up to 50% upside if oil prices rise. (Analysts’ price target is $3.25)

HOLD

It is probably one of the better managed exploration and production companies in Canada. It is a little bit higher risk/reward than some of the others. This is one of the companies he would look at in this group. It will recover or could be acquired or merged with.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He really likes this and he bought it in the March bottom. They won't spend much in Q2 or Q3. Volumes could decline in coming quarters. They're paying down debt, yet still paying a dividend. Debt is declining. Definitely buy on weakness, below $1.60. This could consolidate weaker companies. Fine managers who also own a lot of shares.

HOLD

This is a top name holding for him. Once the banks decide on subsidies for some of the companies, there should be some uncertainty that comes out of the share price. They are trading at an attractive level. At $50 or higher oil, the balance sheet is strong and their production decline rate is falling. They are capturing CO2 to work towards becoming net zero emitting.

BUY

He owns this one. It is up 16% today on a lack of sellers. They cut the dividend to a yield that is still 7-8%. Volumes will likely drop off in Q2, but are expected to spend more in Q4, depending on how the market reacts. The balance sheet is in good shape with $1.2 billion in debt. His rating is "A".

BUY

A high quality way to play a bullish oil play. Q2 earnings are going to be bad, but it depends on what the balance of the year and 2021 holds. They have a modest decline rate, which reduces the capex required. He thinks the dividend is sustainable around $35 oil prices. He was buying it yesterday. Yield 9.5%

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Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO)