Waste Connections (WCN.TO)

The chart was in an uptrend from 2024-early 2025, then was in a downtrend, with lower lows, to present. Five years ago, there was resistance around $180, which is now the current support. Don't catch a falling knife.

Steady business, but the stock's not looking the same. 200-day MA trending lower, series of lower lows and lower highs. Market's looking for more exciting plays. Fundamentally sound. Sees 10% earnings growth, but a bit pricey at 27x forward PE.

Technicals would make it hard for him to start a position.

Makes acquisitions, targeting smaller markets where they earn a pricing premium. Exposed to vertically integrated markets where they also own the landfill. Stock's down on chemical leak in California last year plus worries about fuel costs.

Very well run. Great emphasis on employee safety and culture, in an industry that's one of the most dangerous jobs in America. Yield is 0.93%.

Challenging sector right now, but his choice in the space. Would be impacted by higher interest rates, but doesn't believe that'll be an issue.

Likes both. Stable, reliable cashflows -- so they trade at a premium, but don't be concerned. All stocks that provide a "physical" type of service are doing well.

WCN is a bit higher growth, so it leads by a nose.

Premium name. Disciplined management and great track record. Still meaningful upside to analysts' targets. Trading ~30x PE, so you're paying for quality. Fairly valued to slightly expensive. Good FCF story. Guiding for double-digit growth in 2026. 

Raised dividend by 11% last fall, share buybacks. Don't chase. Interesting on a pullback. 8/10 on fundamentals.

She owns other names in the States.

Look at the longer-term trend on a 5-year chart. At the time of the pick, the chart looked positive technically. Then came a pullback. He sees this pullback as an opportunity to add this for the longer term. One of the best companies in Canada in terms of stability, and the 10-year chart really highlights this.

A boring company, but still a great business. This is where you want the bulk of your portfolio, with perhaps 5-10% in exciting names that you can talk about at cocktail parties.

Almost identical to WM, except WCN doesn't have the Phoenix Open. Wonderful, irreplaceable assets. Huge economic moat. Steady, predictable EPS and FCF. Market has pushed up valuations for anything predictable. Not ridiculously valued, just a bit rich.

Probably OK for a 10-year hold, even if valuation compresses.

Defensive. An industry with very reliable earnings and revenue. There are only so many players in the space and he likes that kind of setup. Not as exciting as a NFLX or META, but has a place in your portfolio.

Waste industry is an oligopolistic structure, with many smaller companies that larger ones are slowly gobbling up. That's a long-term runway. Plus, amount of solid waste continues to grow at a decent pace. Pricing outpaces inflation. Deserves its premium. Pressure on recycling volumes hurting margins a bit.

An attractive entry point for a buy, but know that it will always be an expensive stock and that's OK.

This industry has its cycles. Will be more business as they expand. No comment on its valuation. Are well-positioned in the waste business, where they are a leader.

A long-term hold for him. One of the best performers in the US, but has been stagnant of late due to the higher PE and it is a defensive. Now, the market wants growth. Be patient. Are compounding cash flow at double digits. Think long term. 

Waste sector has had a tremendous run over past decade. Lots of economic uncertainty (though no massive recession), which has driven investors to "bulletproof" names. Multiple for the sector has exhausted itself. He'd like to own a business like this, but would require a large, macro-based pullback.

Let your winners run, but if it's become overweight in your portfolio, may want to trim. Portfolio rebalancing is healthy. 

Yesterday, Bloomberg posted an article noting it may ultimately cost more to address a high-temperature event at WCN's Chiquita Canyon Landfill than previously thought. The company has budgeted for $100M to $150M in remediation costs this year but Bloomberg said it may be more. Overall, we likely the company, and such events do come with the industry, and WCN has a solid long term operating record. We would be fine holding, and would be buyers into further weakness. We would consider among the best in the sector. 
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