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He likes energy infrastructure pipelines and midstream. They are like toll booths and are worth a lot of money. This one is very much misunderstood. Everyone thought they were going to cut the dividend over the last few years. This is the old Port Chicago, which basically owned 50% of the Alliance pipeline with Enbridge, but the company has been radically transformed over the last 3-4 years, and is now a premier gas infrastructure play. One of the cheaper companies in the sector. Dividend yield of 7.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.)
He would prefer some of the alternatives, such as a Inter Pipeline (IPL-T), TransCanada (TRP-T) or Enbridge (ENB-T). This one looks expensive to him, and by a considerable amount. The one thing that attracts people is the generous yield, but that by itself is not sufficient to account for the difference in valuations.
His way of playing the energy infrastructure space. Very good assets. They have stream assets and pipeline assets. Their major asset is a 50% stake in Alliance Pipeline, which runs from the Northeast BC region down to Chicago. The Northeast BC region in the Montney and Duvernay regions is very prolific and very robust. This is cheap trading at 9.5X AFFO compared to its peers trading at 12.5X. Dividend yield of 7.38%. (Analysts’ price target is $14.88.)
A good hold. Has been adding to his holdings over the last 6 months. It has a good dividend yield. They own half of the Alliance Pipeline, which moves natural gas from Canada into Chicago. They have a power portfolio with power assets for sale, and he thinks they will get a pretty good price for that.
This has a lot more free cash flow of around 10.7 relative to their peers of 7.1. He sees strengthening in natural gas prices. They have 45% of their product in the US, so they get the big tailwinds of FX. They are building out their midstream operations from 14% to about 24% by 2019. Dividend yield of 7.51%. (Analysts’ price target is $14.09.)
Just looking at the numbers, you might think the dividend is not covered and that they have a lot of debt on the balance sheet, but a lot of this has to do with timing. They put a lot of new projects in place. Has a big joint venture with Encana (ECA-T) that is going to come on stream in the next couple of years. Management feels very certain that they are going to sell their US power plant assets, which will create another big cash flow inflow for them. He is not worried about the balance sheet. The dividend is well covered. A very attractive stock to own on the dividend growth side.
Ranks 157 and is in the top quarter of his database. Sales were down 3% year-over-year, but still managed to squeak out a 52% increase in earnings. Earnings estimates have been shaved by about 8% in the last 90 days, and are expected to grow by about 60% from $.23-$.27 in 2017, against a PE of 25X. Unfortunately, free cash flow is not positive.
Not a bad looking chart. If you like the fundamentals, this has a nice little uptrend. It seems to have taken up on the risk, but it is near the trend line. There is not a failure of the lows and highs. There is an old resistance point that it may be starting with right now, but generally speaking, this is not a bad looking chart. If has kind of definitively broken that $13.50 or so area, and would be even more positive, if it could get back up into the $20 range within a year or so. He would wait to see if it broke out.
One of the catalyst pipeline companies that had a bit of a sentiment jump yesterday, in that they might get their Jordan Cove project finally approved. Potentially some of that red tape could get removed. The environment for LNG is still dicey. Prices aren’t that great, so investment decisions are still tricky. He would look for any news on the Jordan Cove project to be a catalyst. He likes the space generally. Dividend yields are high and dividend growth has been good.
Sees lots of opportunities for growth in this story. They are in all the right areas in the basin. They are trying to sell off their power assets, which would provide a lot of capital to clear the balance sheet, because they have a lot of debt. It would also help them to focus a little. Management has faith in their LNG project they are trying to build. They are trying to prove that this project will actually be commercial by trying to sign on some more off takers. That is going to be a catalyst. There is a lot of optionality for the company.
Looking at their free cash flow, they are paying out everything. Paying out about $1 and free cash flow is generating about $1. In the meantime, they need to finance a lot of growth projects in the midstream space in Western Canada. He has been exiting this in the $12-$13 range, because he feels the valuation has played out.
They are looking at boosting their pipeline capacity by 30%. They are going to alter their capital structure. He sees 30% EPS growth. It will be flat growth this year, however. It is going to pay you about a 7% dividend to wait until 2019. Decent balance sheet. (Analysts’ target: $16.00).