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Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX.TO)

TOP PICK
Getting to a yield of almost 14%, sustainable. Almost down to book value. As cheap as you want to be. Attractive to larger companies to buy.
DON'T BUY
Not a fan of this company at all. A 2nd rate company with poor management and poor corporate governance. 10.6% dividend may not be safe.
HOLD
He has a model price of $28.88. That's 110% positive differential. This stock just begs for good news. It needs a catalyst. Thinks around this price is its bottom.
DON'T BUY
He only buys businesses that have positive dynamics and where things are getting better. This company is not in that situation. Wasn't able to perform well during reasonably good markets and is having a rougher time in more difficult markets.
WAIT
Has been down for a while and has been a big disappointment. Money is flowing into healthcare and is regarded as a defensive sector. Chart looks like a falling wedge, which is bullish. Wait to see if it breaks out and in volume.
WATCH
FDA refused to give an extended use-release approval for its existing drug. Just announced that Havenol is going to be distributed by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N), so maybe it's turning. Operational side of things have improved enormously. Sold his holdings.
SELL
(Market Call Minute.) Would need more of a pipeline before he would even be interested.
COMMENT
His model price is $30.83 giving it 125% positive differential. He sees 08 earnings at $1.54. Bad news is basically shadowing this stock. It is probably at its low, discounting any more bad news. Any good news and it should pop. Frustrating stock.
BUY
Their Welbutrin is facing competition from generic drugs. Almost 10% yield, which he feels is not sustainable. However, the stock has come down a long way and they have a pipeline that is starting to build into 2009. Have lots of cash on the balance sheet.
DON'T BUY
Model price is $29.68 but that doesn’t include recent bad news. Its next level is $13.30. This space is terrible at this time.
DON'T BUY
This has been a hard stock to make money in. Has had some management and product issues. Investor’s confidence in the stock has been very low.
WAIT
Market Call Minute - Interesting, but it keeps going down and making new lows.
SELL
There “pipeline” of new drugs is very bare. Having trouble getting market penetration with their new stuff.
DON'T BUY
Trouble written all over it. 90% differential. Needs positive news somewhere. Interesting to have in securities portfolio.
DON'T BUY
Got rid of their US sales force. Their key drug Welbutrin is running off protection and will have more competition in 2008. Reasonably cheap. FDA delayed one drug. There will be volatility.
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