Paul Harris, CFAVale S.A.VALECOMMENTSep 12, 2012

Base metal investing, in general, is very cyclical. Very rarely a long-term growth story that you buy and hold because you always want to be there. That applies to base metals and precious metals. They can go through months or even years where they're doing great, and then they'll be out of favour for months or years. When the global economy's slowing, these things cheapen up quite a bit. And if we go into recession, they'll cheapen up even more.

He's been buying for his portfolio. Already at the low end of the range, though could get cheaper if we hit a recession.

Cheap. Waiting to see outcome of penalties for catastrophic tailings dam failure in Brazil. He needs to do a net present value analysis. Iron has been fairly weak recently, but company still generates substantial free cash from Brazil.

Too speculative for him in mining.

A lot of metals have been settling down, and Brazil's had some rough times. Might have broken the support level, probably because copper and metals are taking a breather. Possible it will see lows of 2020. Chart's more bearish than bullish right now.

He wouldn't buy it. If you already own, it's your call, as the next target is that 2020 low.

Depends on view of copper prices. Very high exposure to commodity swings. Good operator, but would advise a detailed investigation. Can be a risky asset and business. 

Challenge is geopolitical risk in Brazil & disaster in recent mine (60 deaths). Potential $15 Billion settlement outstanding. Despite these risks, owns shares. Speculative buy with a strong dividend. Iron/Ore franchise strong. 

Was upgraded today. She used to own it. The company isn't that transparent and iron ore is a tight market, but she prefers copper's supply/demand trend. Likes Vale's free cash flow and paying down debt.

It's based on Brazil, so there's unwanted political risk.

The market doesn't like Latin America where VALE operates, but copper prices are starting to fly, and so will VALE shares. This is a trade.