Stockchase Opinions

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) Vale S.A. VALE-N TOP PICK Oct 06, 2022

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate VALE, the world's largest producer of iron and nickel - two critical components in infrastructure, batteries and steel -- as a TOP PICK. The company reports demand for ore outstrips supply and expects copper demand to rise too. It trades at only 4x earnings and 2x book. It pays a great dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 20% of cash flow. We recommend trailing up the stop-loss from $9.50 to $11.50, looking to achieve $17.50 -- upside potential over 18%. Yield 5.3% (Analysts’ price target is $17.47)
$14.510

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 06/22, Up 20%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with VALE has achieved its target at $17.50. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $14.00) to $15.00. If triggered, this would result in a net investment gain of 16% when combined with our previous buy recommendation.
BUY

The market doesn't like Latin America where VALE operates, but copper prices are starting to fly, and so will VALE shares. This is a trade.

DON'T BUY

It's based on Brazil, so there's unwanted political risk.

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 06/22, Up 3.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with VALE has triggered its stop at $15.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  This will result in a net investment gain of 13%, when combined with our previous buy recommendation.  

COMMENT

Was upgraded today. She used to own it. The company isn't that transparent and iron ore is a tight market, but she prefers copper's supply/demand trend. Likes Vale's free cash flow and paying down debt.

RISKY

Challenge is geopolitical risk in Brazil & disaster in recent mine (60 deaths). Potential $15 Billion settlement outstanding. Despite these risks, owns shares. Speculative buy with a strong dividend. Iron/Ore franchise strong. 

RISKY

Depends on view of copper prices. Very high exposure to commodity swings. Good operator, but would advise a detailed investigation. Can be a risky asset and business. 

DON'T BUY

A lot of metals have been settling down, and Brazil's had some rough times. Might have broken the support level, probably because copper and metals are taking a breather. Possible it will see lows of 2020. Chart's more bearish than bullish right now.

He wouldn't buy it. If you already own, it's your call, as the next target is that 2020 low.

DON'T BUY

Too speculative for him in mining.

WAIT

Cheap. Waiting to see outcome of penalties for catastrophic tailings dam failure in Brazil. He needs to do a net present value analysis. Iron has been fairly weak recently, but company still generates substantial free cash from Brazil.