Stockchase Opinions

Paul Harris, CFA Visa Inc. V-N PAST TOP PICK Feb 24, 2025

(A Top Pick Dec 28/23, Up 35%)

There is lots of growth internationally. The banks take on the risks in using the cards. It has become too big but that can change. The loyalty programs really help in the credit card business but there is a possibility that they may not be used as much in the future.

$349.860

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

They're all good, but this name is the most profitable because it has the largest payment network. Shareholder friendly, increasing dividend and buying back shares. Don't have to spend a lot to improve infrastructure. Valuation at high 20s or low 30s PE is rich.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Deregulation should help. The only downside is that regulatory deregulation can often lead to big hiccups in markets, as in 2007. 

Makes money every time people travel. Since Covid, retirees have been breaking out. Perfect cash cow. Picking away at it for new clients.

SELL
Reports Thursday, January 30 after the bell.

Gotta love the digitization of the world with electronic payments. Lots of up-and-comers will provide competition. Yet it's managed quite a strong hold in the space. Overvalued, time to sell. Market leader. He'd be all over it around $250-275.

WEAK BUY

Having a decent day today in the face of tariff threat. One reason is that, if you look at its business, it's somewhat tariff-proof. Another reason is that money has to go somewhere. So if investors are net sellers on an impulse call, such as tariffs, where does that $$ go -- financials and healthcare are possible havens.

WAIT

Great business. Benefits from online shopping and move to cashless. Trades at a premium valuation, so good news already built in. Best time to buy a blue-chip like this is on a market correction. Always regulatory risk, but Canada putting a cap on interest rates would not materially affect this name.

BUY

It keeps hitting new highs, being in the right place over the last 10 years. It's taking a greater market share because more purchasing is going on cards. They have the best technology and will maintain dominance.

WATCH

Very good performer, but always attracts a very high premium multiple. Seen as part of an oligopoly in the payments space. If there's a downtick in the economy, price and/or volume of goods would come down; there would be less "traffic" on the Visa toll road. In a recession, rather than people putting all purchases on plastic, they tend to be more cautious and spend less overall. So, potentially lower earnings.

Brand is fantastic, with very high ROIC. If it ever got cheap enough, he'd consider it. 

HOLD

Undisputed champ, leaving fintech and MA in the dust. Gives you exposure to the financial sector. Outperforming the S&P financial sector by ~10%. Q1 saw 8% transaction growth. Cautious consumer spending could be a potential risk, though US consumer remains strong. E-commerce and travel spending could push volumes higher in 2025-26.

It's a hold for her, not in a rush to add more.

BUY

Visa and Mastercard both have no credit risk and are doing incredibly well.