Gordon Reid Visa Inc. V-N BUY ON WEAKNESS Apr 09, 2025

Undisputed champ, leaving fintech and MA in the dust. Gives you exposure to the financial sector. Outperforming the S&P financial sector by ~10%. Q1 saw 8% transaction growth. Cautious consumer spending could be a potential risk, though US consumer remains strong. E-commerce and travel spending could push volumes higher in 2025-26.

It's a hold for her, not in a rush to add more.

Visa and Mastercard both have no credit risk and are doing incredibly well.

Down because everything's down. Concern that in an economic slowdown people will be slower to pay off credit cards, and there will be less travel. Doesn't have the credit risks that banks do. 

Will always trade at a premium because the space has very few competitors. Right now, market is trading on news not fundamentals. Buy now and you'll be happy 6-24 months out. Economic slowdown will affect consumer. Who knows what tariffs will look like down the road?

12-month price target of $380. Rolled over on all the chatter about recession and slower growth. January earnings were great, beating on top and bottom; raised guidance. He owns MA instead, mainly due to slightly better upside than V's 16-17%.

Reliable name. Vast network, trusted brand, unmatched scale. Move from cash to digital payments. Consumer spending remains pretty solid in US. Cross-border transactions remain strong. Pretty capital light, which means very strong free cashflows. About 13% annual growth rate, paying a slight premium for the name. 

Recently bounced off 200-day MA very nicely, so it's a pretty good technical setup going forward. Yield is 0.68%.

Best years of growth are probably behind it. Buybacks and dividend increases. Really tied to consumption, whether institutional or consumer. Good brand, good story. Transition from cash to digital will continue -- premier opportunity in that space. He's overweight, and probably won't trim just yet. 

A name you buy whenever you get the opportunity; long term, you'll make money. He's not a huge fan of the market at these levels.

Both great, both enjoying growth ahead with much of the world still to adopt cashless payment. MA has seen a little higher growth, but both have good growth and both enjoy 97% gross margins and 67% operating margins. They got knocked about occasionally over fears of regulation. Prefers Visa slightly over its valuation discount. Good to buy either.

Every time he's trimmed the stock, it's been a mistake. Great example of the power of network effects. Though penetration is high in developed markets, it still delivers decent sales growth and low double-digit earnings growth. No reason for the story to imminently change. Value-added services (such as security, analytics, loyalty insights) are growing at multiples faster than the core business.