Stockchase Opinions

Darren SissonsUnited TechnologiesUTXCOMMENTMar 05, 2020

Spinning out elevator business, which was a cash cow. Stock ran up on the split. There may be a trade. The elevator space is where you want to be. (Analysts’ price target is $170.00)
$126.44

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 13/20, Down 16%) They spun off Otis and Carrier, and merged with Raytheon. It is now half defence and half aerospace. The defence side has been doing well. Continues to hold it, and is a play for the recovery in the airline industry. Great management team. Earnings are depressed, but it will pick up with reopening.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 10/19, Down 17%) Merged with Raytheon. Now the company is half defence, and half commercial aerospace. It will be a tough year for the aerospace side. Sound balance sheet. Willing to ride it out. Very strong management. Travel will resume eventually.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 25/19, Down 21%) Raytheon (RTX) bought them out. Its valuation is 15 times earnings. It is diversified, so is not a pure aviation play. They have a defense segment a good balance sheet. He would be adding to this. When they spun out OTIS and Carrier, they actually added to their position on the elevator segment (OTIS) and sold Carrier.

WATCH
Going to split into 2 or 3 companies. Usually split ups are good generators of value. He's cautious, however. Commercial aerospace is in a downturn right now, due to coronavirus and 737 MAX issues. Hold off.
BUY

They're merging with Raytheon, which he bought a while ago as the best way to get into UTX. It's a commercial as well as defense stock. UTX will spin-off businesses like Otis Elevators. This will only grow the stock.

BUY

All developments with UTX (meaning the Raytheon deal) are positive. The stock has come off recently and is holding around $150. If it stays there, you can enter UTX.

TOP PICK
Likes all its different components. Stock price doesn't reflect sum of all the parts. Less cyclicality than other industrial stocks. Increases dividend. Yield is 1.92%. (Analysts’ price target is $171.11)
HOLD

Over a 2-5 year time horizon, this will do fine, especially following the acquisition of Raytheon. This will diversify their business into the defense space. With low interest rates and good economic growth, this will be a good long term hold in the industrial space.

COMMENT

UTX merging with Raytheon He owns Raytheon and this deal with UTX is a great combination. Before the merger, UTX will spinoff its elevator division--a taxable event for Canadian. For Canadians to lower this tax hit, buy Raytheon. Recommended. UTX may struggle a bit because of Boeing's 737 Max woes (UTX makes engines), but long-term aerospace looks healthy. There are 26,000 commercial planes now, but by 2030 there need to 35,000, outpacing GDP growth. Combined synergies will make this company powerful.

BUY
Merging with Raytheon and spinning off their subdivisions He really likes it, has been a past top pick. You can buy it today based on valuation, trading at 17x earnings. They will combine their aerospace with Raytheon to be a pure play, then spin off other divisions--HVAC and Otis Elevators. This plan will create shareholder value, long-term. It trades at a decent 17x earnings; that pure play will push the value above 20x earnings. The other businesses won't be valued as highly, because they don't grow, but will free them to pursue M&A. He sees 20-30% upside.
COMMENT
The big thing here to be cautious is the tax implications. United is going to spin off divisions as part of this merger and as they do if you hold in a Canadian taxable account you are going to have to pay 50% of the value of the spin-off. Owns Raytheon now. Great company if you want to hold it longer terms.
HOLD
Pending breakup? He really likes the industrial space and this is a very diverse company. He likes how they new organization will be broken up following the Raytheon merger and that should lead to higher overall value. It is well positioned for a re-acceleration of the economy. A pick up in China would help their elevator business. Yield 2%
PARTIAL BUY
Interesting company. You could buy it, as Raytheon will add a lot to it. Spending will continue, no matter who is in charge in the US. Positive on it long-term. Take a half position to hedge your bets.
WAIT
For a cyclical sector like industrials, you have to be really confident that the economy has room to run. He doesn't think there's a recession in 6 months, but still thinks you have to be careful at this late stage in the cycle. Still, he likes this name amongst its peers.