NASDAQ:ULTA

Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. (ULTA)

469.20
+8.96 (1.95%)
as of Jul 10, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.
57 watching
0
Investor Insights
star iconJul 10, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 4 opinions in the last 12 months.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. has experienced a tumultuous period, revealing concerns about its performance for the latter half of 2026, suggesting a loss of momentum as it seems to have reverted to previous valuation levels from a year ago. Despite strong same-store sales reported earlier this month, higher-than-expected costs led to an earnings miss, contributing to a notable 23% drop in shares over the past month. However, experts remain optimistic about the company's long-term vitality, citing the younger generation's increasing focus on beauty and a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio. Following a significant increase of 54.4% in stock prices since the appointment of CEO Steelman, investor sentiment shifted positively as the outlook for consumer stocks improved, bolstered by a favorable interest rate environment and strong retail earnings around the holidays, including a reported 12.9% increase in net sales year-over-year and a solid gross margin profit increase of 40.4%. Furthermore, the company raised its full-year forecast, signaling confidence in continued growth despite the recent turbulence.

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Consensus
Mixed
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Valuation
Fair Value
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TOP PICK
High profit margins, no debt and grow same-store sales growth. They buyback shares and open new stores. Great valuation. They have 33 million members in their loyalty program. They guided lower recently and sold off 30%--that's when he bought. (Analysts’ price target is $296.89)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 20/18, Up 34%) Still likes the US retail space--strong same-store sales growth and are opening new stores. They open 100 per year with 1,100 total. Same-store sales growth is 7-8% yearly. They just announced the new Kylie line and the stock jumped. Well-managed with lots of room to grow. They're aiming for 2,000 stores yet their online hasn't suffered.
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 20/18 - Up 2%.) Business has been good. Late last year it picked. Growth has slowed but still looking at mid-teens next year. He would still be buying here.

TOP PICK

A great combination of new store openings and same-store sales increase. They own 1000 stores and plan to open another 100 this year. Multiples came down with fears that Amazon was going to enter the cosmetic space, making it very reasonably priced now. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $246.95 )


PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 26/17. Down 13%.) Got stopped out, but had made money on it. It had looked like something that could not be Amazonized, but he was wrong. It started to fall apart in the summer.

TOP PICK

They have their own line of beauty products. They also have solon services within the store so they are creating an experience to attract the buyer into the store. It is a unique play within the consumer space. (Analysts’ target: $253.50).

TOP PICK

A low-volume name that is doing things that are considered to be a little bit Amazon proof. The stores are not in big malls, but are off in the power centres on the sides. They have been growing ad hoc, but now are starting to get logistics in place, merchandising technology, loyalty programs, mobility, Internet and it is all coming together. It still has lots of legs left. (Analysts’ price target is $301.06.)

COMMENT

Very good management. Likes the segment and its growth profile. It can have a little torque, so you might want to use trailing stops. When it comes off, it can come off pretty hard.

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