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NASDAQ:ULTA
Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. (ULTA)
Financials 
Technical Analysis 
Aug 19, 2026, 12:00 amThis summary was created by AI, based on 4 opinions in the last 12 months.
Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. (ULTA-Q) has faced some challenges recently as concerns about the latter half of 2026 arise, with signs of lost momentum bringing the stock back to levels seen a year ago. Despite reporting strong same-store sales, the company experienced increased costs that led to a miss in earnings expectations, resulting in a 23% drop in share price over the past month. However, the potential of the beauty market, especially among younger consumers, remains strong, with experts believing that AI won't disrupt this trend. The latest quarterly performance showcased significant growth with net sales rising 12.9% year-over-year, and recent management under CEO Steelman has led to a remarkable 54.4% increase in stock value since his appointment. With analysts raising full-year forecasts in light of these positive performance indicators, Ulta still appears to have room to grow despite recent setbacks.
They just reported an excellent quarter last night, but spiked after hours, plunged, then rebounded today. A yo-yo. Why? How? Up and down then flat. They had a massive earnings and sales beats. Same-store sales were up 15.6% vs. 8.7% expected. And they faced tough comps from last year. RPS and revenue forecast FY 2023 guidance topped expectations. They're opening 25-30 new stores, while Wall Street expected 49. Problem is that expectations were set high, and today saw the SVB crash and a bearish market. Impressive growth areas: skin care, fragrance and ecommerce/in-store pick-up. Rewards program boasts 40.2 million members. American luxury spending will remain healthy, but will moderate. Not perfect, but pretty good.
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Premium contentEstee Lauder is a consideration, but it trades at 44.9x PE and the stock locks fully valued now. In contast, Ulta looks reasonable at a 26.4x valuation. True, Ulta is also trading at current highs, but it could have a little more upside. The 14 analysts who recommend a buy and the seven who hold agree by placing a $460.37 price target on ULTA-Q. That's nearly 14% upside as the year starts. Also, Ulta boasts a strong record of four blow-out beats last year. Consumers hold a lot of cash and, after being cooped up during Covid, are dying to get out and meet people again. This is the way to play the coming party.
(A Top Pick Sep 02/20, Up 52%) People are buying makeup and perfumes again. They did well with skincare and their deal with Target during the pandemic. Beauty and cosmetics are coming back. They will perform quite well if things stay open.
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They had a great quarter and he loves the CEO. At $438, shares are in no-man's land. Sells at 17x earnings. A good buy, but not a trading stock.