Stan WongTaiwan Semiconductor MFG.TSMTOP PICKNov 13, 2025

The geopolitical concerns particular to this name have been around for some time, yet the share price has continued to move higher. For him that's not at the forefront of his thesis, though something to consider.

Numbers reported this morning showed a 53% YOY gain in revenue, with 10% in July alone. Biggest customers in the world in the tech space, and those customers need them. Very little competition. Very high barriers to entry. Expanding across the world. EPS growth rate is 40% over next few years. Technical chart is strong. Yield is 1.02%.

Could push higher, but you need to have the broad sentiment change he talked about at the top of the show. Involved in the broad move by semis, and they've all come down as sentiment has turned negative. Geopolitical risk on the shores of China. Globally dominant foundry despite US administration's backing INTC as a domestic play.

To evaluate, look at broader macro issues first. Nothing wrong with it, but please look at the broader picture.

Controls 80-85% of the manufacturing of chips around the world. Now setting up shop in the US. His 12-month price target is ~$545. Definitely buy here, but in thirds. Buy here, around $400, and ~$375 (doubts you'll see this).

A name to consider instead of CLS.

Owns both. Likes both, but for different reasons. Complement each other in a portfolio. Recently added to MU on pullback.

MU makes memory chips. More cyclical. When demand and pricing are strong, can be a lot more earnings upside. A bit more torque in the current AI memory cycle.

TSM manufactures advanced chip design. Steadier, higher-quality manufacturing platform. Sits at the centre of almost the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Tradeoff is geopolitical risk, with most of advanced production concentrated in Taiwan.

Best in class. Prime beneficiary of AI. Advanced chips carry the lion's share of profitability. As long as that continues, it'll be a good investment. Quite expensive here. Put on your radar for when we get a decent correction.

We're in the craziest cycle we've ever seen. We haven't even touched levels people think we're going to reach in terms of AI demand. Sold out for the net 4-5 years. Stock reflects a lot of that good news. When the cycle ends, it'll be painful.

AI infrastructure buildout is a massive growth segment. This is the name he uses for client portfolios. Valuations in the space tend to be fairly rich. So this name isn't a buy today. Watch and wait.

There is demand for their chips. Claude, ChatGPT, all these AI applications need more chips.

Spending lots of $$ to build foundries in the US. Demand backdrop remains strong, margins are great.

The semis stocks have seen extreme momentum and peaked. He is moving away from semis and is now underweight the space. These stocks will continue to be volatile and could even make new highs, but now is a good time to exit if you have made good money.

It's always undervalued on valuation, because there's a fear that China will one day clash with Taiwan. But TSM is the bottleneck in all memory and they have the most advanced technology. Even after ramping up production, they can't keep up with this ferocious demand.

Good opportunity if you're looking for broad exposure to semis with both GPUs and CPUs. Whichever cycle comes out the winner, this name will perform well from risk/reward. Pullback today due to overreaction on META news, not a bad entry.

Her team prefers to play one or the other, and right now is really excited about CPUs. 

TSM was cheap last year because of worries that China will invade Taiwan. TSM is the bottleneck to AI. They are the most important company around--they make the products for Nvidia, Qualcomm, everybody. Musk and Intel say they will compete with TSM, but building those factories will take years. TSM's demand will last years. Valuation remains okay. Prefers this to Nvidia any day.