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Opinions Dan Rohinton
Taiwan Semiconductor MFG.TSMTOP PICKNov 03, 2025
Dan RohintonStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 25, 2026. Market Open.
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We're in the craziest cycle we've ever seen. We haven't even touched levels people think we're going to reach in terms of AI demand. Sold out for the net 4-5 years. Stock reflects a lot of that good news. When the cycle ends, it'll be painful.
Barry SchwartzAI infrastructure buildout is a massive growth segment. This is the name he uses for client portfolios. Valuations in the space tend to be fairly rich. So this name isn't a buy today. Watch and wait.
Chris Blumas
Spending lots of $$ to build foundries in the US. Demand backdrop remains strong, margins are great.
Brian Madden
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Premium contentLast year, the company generated 120.66 B USD, the most of which — 105.02 B USD — came from its top-performing segment, Wafer, compared to 78.29 B USD the previous year. The greatest contribution came from United States, which accounted for 90.97 B USD last year, with 62.03 B USD the year before. Social media mentions are up 459% in the past 24h.
It's always undervalued on valuation, because there's a fear that China will one day clash with Taiwan. But TSM is the bottleneck in all memory and they have the most advanced technology. Even after ramping up production, they can't keep up with this ferocious demand.
(Analysts’ price target is $486.84)Dan RohintonGood opportunity if you're looking for broad exposure to semis with both GPUs and CPUs. Whichever cycle comes out the winner, this name will perform well from risk/reward. Pullback today due to overreaction on META news, not a bad entry.
Her team prefers to play one or the other, and right now is really excited about CPUs.
TSM was cheap last year because of worries that China will invade Taiwan. TSM is the bottleneck to AI. They are the most important company around--they make the products for Nvidia, Qualcomm, everybody. Musk and Intel say they will compete with TSM, but building those factories will take years. TSM's demand will last years. Valuation remains okay. Prefers this to Nvidia any day.
Barry Schwartz(Note the short timeframe.) Still a wonderful bottleneck-monopoly company. Last quarter saw revenue growth of 40% YOY, gross margins of ~67%, operating margins of 58%. Software margins for a hardware company.
Raised full-year revenue growth to above 30%. Increasing capex, which is a very strong signal for the overall space.
Nick Mersch, CFA
Allegedly has competitors, but not in practice. Those competitors are on the lagging edge. Effectively the monopoly on bleeding edge chips. Best and most consistent toll road on AI technology getting more miniature and sophisticated. Yield is 1.03%.
Dan Rohinton
Enables all the other companies to do what they do. Monopoly on leading-edge fabrication of chips. Margins are high. Today announced price increases. Very high ROIC. Cheap valuation of 17x PE (half that of NVDA) for the growth ahead. If you believe that AI is even modestly real, there's no debate that this name will have a role to play for many years.
(Analysts’ price target is $354.09)Why take the risk with an INTC, who's betting that it can leapfrog into success? TSM is already there. His anchor position in technology. Yield is 1.09%.