Reza Samahin, P. Eng, CFATaiwan Semiconductor MFG.TSMBUYMar 20, 2025

He's not adding to semis right now, technical damage apparent. An important company, strong performer. Risk from the double top on the chart over the last 3 months on lower momentum.

 They report Thursday. TSM can control any chip stock if it's weak. If strong, we could see big rally.

He sells in thirds, just like he buys a new position, also in thirds. He sells the first tranche at 4-5% of the price target, another third at target, then evaluate the price target. Now, he holds a full position of TSM. He would not take profits, but short-dated calls on TSM. If it keeps trading up, he can roll the strike price higher. TSM has a near-monopoloy with amazing margins.

You can absolutely get back in. The hardware pullback is creating opportunities. Very strong company, supplies almost everybody. For broad semiconductor exposure.

The geopolitical concerns particular to this name have been around for some time, yet the share price has continued to move higher. For him that's not at the forefront of his thesis, though something to consider.

Numbers reported this morning showed a 53% YOY gain in revenue, with 10% in July alone. Biggest customers in the world in the tech space, and those customers need them. Very little competition. Very high barriers to entry. Expanding across the world. EPS growth rate is 40% over next few years. Technical chart is strong. Yield is 1.02%.

Could push higher, but you need to have the broad sentiment change he talked about at the top of the show. Involved in the broad move by semis, and they've all come down as sentiment has turned negative. Geopolitical risk on the shores of China. Globally dominant foundry despite US administration's backing INTC as a domestic play.

To evaluate, look at broader macro issues first. Nothing wrong with it, but please look at the broader picture.

Controls 80-85% of the manufacturing of chips around the world. Now setting up shop in the US. His 12-month price target is ~$545. Definitely buy here, but in thirds. Buy here, around $400, and ~$375 (doubts you'll see this).

A name to consider instead of CLS.

Owns both. Likes both, but for different reasons. Complement each other in a portfolio. Recently added to MU on pullback.

MU makes memory chips. More cyclical. When demand and pricing are strong, can be a lot more earnings upside. A bit more torque in the current AI memory cycle.

TSM manufactures advanced chip design. Steadier, higher-quality manufacturing platform. Sits at the centre of almost the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Tradeoff is geopolitical risk, with most of advanced production concentrated in Taiwan.

Best in class. Prime beneficiary of AI. Advanced chips carry the lion's share of profitability. As long as that continues, it'll be a good investment. Quite expensive here. Put on your radar for when we get a decent correction.

We're in the craziest cycle we've ever seen. We haven't even touched levels people think we're going to reach in terms of AI demand. Sold out for the net 4-5 years. Stock reflects a lot of that good news. When the cycle ends, it'll be painful.

AI infrastructure buildout is a massive growth segment. This is the name he uses for client portfolios. Valuations in the space tend to be fairly rich. So this name isn't a buy today. Watch and wait.

There is demand for their chips. Claude, ChatGPT, all these AI applications need more chips.

Spending lots of $$ to build foundries in the US. Demand backdrop remains strong, margins are great.

The semis stocks have seen extreme momentum and peaked. He is moving away from semis and is now underweight the space. These stocks will continue to be volatile and could even make new highs, but now is a good time to exit if you have made good money.