Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ.TO) Buy, Sell…

Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ.TO)

43.01

+0.04 (0.09%)

as of Dec 16, 2022, 9:00:00 pm Market Open.

38 watching

COMMENT

A tortured story, but shouldn’t be a surprise as they are dealing in a difficult environment in Mongolia. A massive operating mine of over 1 billion pounds of copper and 60 thousand ounces of gold. They are waiting for government approval for going underground. There are concerns about how long that might take. He doesn't like the geopolitical risks.

DON'T BUY

Great assets in a risky jurisdiction. Even at this level she wouldn’t step in. She would want to see more clarity with the Mongolian government and what action they may take. On top of this, copper prices are falling.

HOLD

One of the largest undeveloped copper/gold mines globally (in Mongolia). The concern is that the Mongolian government has been postulating and trying to get higher taxes and royalties. This has made investors nervous. Once the company starts production, they should be generating excellent cash flows.

BUY

Recognizes this as the only, very large, new independent listed copper producer in the world for many years. Rio Tinto (RIO-N) now controls it totally and are the best people to do the block caving and the best people to be totally organized and to maintain a good relationship with the Mongolian government.

DON'T BUY

Has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2011 but maybe basing out right now. Until it breaks the downtrend line, he would not be a buyer.

COMMENT

Looking fairly attractive at this level. The discovery in Mongolia has the prospect of being one of the largest copper/gold mines globally. Brought in a partner, Rio Tinto (RIO-N), which took control of the partnership, which has de-risked the project for Ivanhoe. They are in the market with a rights offering in a $7 range, which he thinks will be taken up.

PARTIAL BUY

This one has been following the course of most commodity sensitive stocks. Chart shows a strong downtrend. Currently it is right in the resistance and this is not a place to give away the stock. Don't Sell. If you like, you can pick away at it.

COMMENT

Copper has not come off that much but there is the expectation that it is about to roll over and the stocks have rolled over. This company has already been bought and no one can take over Rio Tinto’s position. It has one of the great resource deposits on the planet and is going into production. When it is up and running and they can prove it works, it should trade at $20-$25. Probably not a bad pick.

DON'T BUY

Rio Tinto (RIO-N) has recently acquired 51% so as a. takeout play, the premium will probably not be as high as previously expected and she expects the stock to stay sideways. There are better places to put your money.

DON'T BUY

Doesn’t make his original filter at all. Too many wild cards with this company. When he sees what they did in the past he wonders what they will do in the future. Nat Gas is the most interesting to him at present.

BUY

Thinks there is incremental growth for this story. They are 80% proved construction. Rio Tinto (RIO-N) continues to increase its ownership. For a conservative position or large institutional position, it is an appropriate investment. There will be more value incrementally coming into the stock.

DON'T BUY

Rio Tinto (RIO-N) just acquired enough to give it 51% of the company. This means there will be no fight and no takeover premium. He has always been wary because of their geography. Mongolia is a long ways away and not much is known about the government. He'd rather have something with a mine in Chile or something with more familiarity and comfort.

HOLD

This one has an up trend going during the latter part of 2011. Had a little break at around $18.75, which would indicate it is probably going to go back to visit something around $12. If so, this would be a double bottom when it could then take off. New lows are successively higher. Ride the trend up and if it goes higher. If it breaks that, the whole materials sector is probably not going to have the run.

HOLD

People were holding this on the basis that Freedland would sell his remaining stake to Rio Tinto (RIO-N). There was a recent judgment that Rio Tinto can continue to January 18th to start taking and slowly creeping ahead above the 49.6% stake they have. Clearly they don't need much to get control. A Buy at the $14 level.

DON'T BUY

Trying to develop a massive gold/copper project in Mongolia with Rio Tinto. Has stayed away from this because of Mongolia as well as the significant capital and execution risk.

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