Douglas KeeThomson Reuters CorpTRI.TOPAST TOP PICKMar 21, 2011

The market fears AI will take over software. The most important thing in this discussion is owning proprietary data that no AI can access. TRI probably fits this bill; they've collected years of data on accounting, law, health care, which is protected from AI. Demand for their products will continue. He owns TRI's peers like TMX, which are better run, but if you own this, don't sell TRI. TRI's fundamentals are still doing very well. The valuation is no longer extreme, but attractive. The Thomson family owns a lot of shares. Let it breathe and give it time. Would be attracted to it if he didn't already own similar names.

Ask yourself:  What's the difficulty of replicating its unique proprietary data? Provides go-to solutions for lawyers, and that has to be from a trusted provider. Last quarter's report showed that it'll probably be able to improve efficiency by adding AI.

Before the drop, it was trading at very lofty 50-60x PE, so some of this may be a recalibration of investor expectations to a more reasonable level.

A classic downhill chart that seems to be leveling off. Now, we see a transition based on a March low and slightly higher April low. It's a consolidation pattern. Scores 6/10. If the chart breaks out, it will be quite bullish.

Believes it's making strategy mistakes on AI. On price, he'd be a tactical buyer today. The road ahead is significantly worse than the road behind. There's no hope it's going back to $300 or anything close.

Getting disrupted in the highest-margin part of its business (legal division).

Such a big run, now a huge amount's come off. Looks attractive. Pace of change in the AI space makes things uncertain. Hard to determine pricing power of a tool. The market's not stupid, there are serious concerns.

One thesis says to look through that and say the moat will be fine. For him, it's too risky.

He bought it earlier this year as shares declined. He owned it before. It always had a high valuation until recently when it came down. Likes it long term. The street misses the extent of their data moat; they have proprietary content, plus many lawyers curated that content. Also, TRI will benefit from AI to enhance their products. Good data means good products, and they have good product run by good people. It now trades around 20x PE and a free cash flow yield of 5%. A pristine balance sheet.

Frustrating. Collapsed, then a big rally. Rolling over again. Jury's out on whether AI will kill its legal and accounting software. For himself, he likes the law firm of "Claude, Copilot, and Gemini" ;) 

TRI's legal business has a bit of a moat around it. There's true value there. We'll have fewer lawyers, but the ones left will need access to the kind of data supplied by RTI. It'll survive, but the question is what do you pay for it?

Is -32% in Q1 and one of the worst performers on the S&P. The street expects AI to displace their business, compiling financial data, which he uses on the show. The street won't wait to find out if AI will indeed displace them and will sell now anyway.

Transitioned from newspapers to information. In the age of AI, information is much more commoditized. On AI concerns, many babies have been thrown out with much bathwater. If you have proprietary data, data will be king -- these companies will probably do better than the market fears.

Is wrestling with it. They have some proprietary data. A lot of what they do is data aggregation, which he will be able to do increasingly somewhere else at a fraction of the price. Large language models can't access their legal products, at least not yet. Will they be able to later? Doesn't know. Two years ago they traded at 50x PE, and now 20x which remains high given this AI pressure. TRI is intriguing but isn't convinced yet.

Software selloff is overdone. AI won't be that quick to replace a company like this. Already incorporates AI in its programs. Data is proprietary.

If you got in a couple of weeks ago, hold on. His firm is looking to get in.

Classic compounder, higher valuation. Narrative shifted around software. Lots of bad news priced in. Trades 21x forward PE, grows earnings at 10+% pretty consistently. 

AI fears overblown. Stock's finding support. Bounced on news that it's working with Anthropic. Don't expect a V-shaped bounce, be patient.

Valuation always excessive -- over 20x operating cashflow for single-digit growth. Now, that's changed with the pullback, so it might be more interesting down here.

Anthropic had announced an AI tool that could write legal briefs. There were worries this could displace TRI, which also was at a high PE before the drop. He hopes today is an inflection point where AI companies will partner with data providers which have unique, irreplaceable data. He hopes sentiment changes on the entire sector where they are beneficiaries and not disrupted by AI.

All of the Top Picks today are being tarred with the same software brush, with very little differentiation of what they do and how they do it.

Huge differentiator is its 3 end markets:  lawyers, compliance professionals, and accountants. The data in all of its core product offerings is proprietary. Employs more than 3k legal and accounting professionals to curate this information. 

Competitive advantage, including from Anthropic, is so difficult to replicate. In last few years, has already been incorporating AI into its products. Likely to maintain its moat, and perhaps deepen it further. He's never seen the valuation it's at, very attractive. Yield is 2.98%.