TSE:TOU

Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

67.44
+0.94 (1.41%)
as of Oct 26, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Closed.
832 watching
0
WAIT
Holding up not badly in a sad industry. Don't buy right now. Rally this past week has pivoted quite a bit and volume is low. Lot of resistance around $17.50. Avoid right now. Looks as though it's headed down. Can probably pick it up in the $16 range. If it stayed sustainably above $17.60, he'd be a buyer.
TOP PICK
A nat. gas producer, the premium company. They are moving more towards liquids. It has an excellent balance sheet. A year from now they will be able to raise the dividend yet again. It has a lot of free funds flowing. He has a target of $24 in one year. (Analysts’ price target is $26.96)
WATCH
One of the top 5 mid-cap great western Canadian companies. He bought ARC instead. TOU isn't over-dividending. Going to be almost 30% LNG going forward. You'd want some sort of technical bounce before going in. (Analysts’ price target is $27.00)
BUY

It is one of his favourite names. The liquids will go up a little this summer. They are talking about 300 BOEs this year. This company is one of the largest he covers. 2% yield. It is the cheapest he has ever seen for one of these companies. Book is $28 and it got to $20. Below $18 it is a table pounding buy. This is a name you want own at under 20% debt.

COMMENT
Too big to be taken over, except by a major, and it's quite independent, so that's a very low chance. Pure gas play, well run, profitable, has growth. Chart is pretty good for an energy stock. But valuations are still extremely low. It's in upper 5% of names, but whole group is out of favour. It will be a long process to make money.
BUY
Natural gas producer. It is a top pick on his action alert buy list. You get a dividend yield. They are moving to add more liquids. They are talking about having more cash flow. They may add to their dividend or to stock buy backs.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 8%) One of the biggest gas producers in Canada. He is surprised it has been as stable as it has. It has done a good job with hedging and market diversification. Still a core holding.
STRONG BUY
It is the classic premier story. They are doing over $4 a share in cash flow. Liquids volumes are increasing. It is on his action alert buy list. (Analysts’ price target is $34.00)
COMMENT
He is not enamored with natural gas right now. He feels management is able to beat expectations, which should allow them to get re-rated going forward by the analysts.
COMMENT
All energy stocks have been hammered. TOU has good managers. It's cheap at 17x PE, but low ROE and missed a recent quarter. Their saving grace is their balance sheet. TOU is on the list of strategic acquisition for the big players.
BUY
Tourmaline vs. Vermillion TOU is well-managed. Natural gas has enjoyed nice pop lately. He likes VET for their acquisitions, because they can access an international price on oil (not the much-lower WCS), and have seen strong growth in recent years as the valuation has decreased. Balance sheet is solid. He predicts WTI will settle at $60 and the WCS differential will narrow.
BUY
Management are significant shareholders of the company. Debt is only 18%. This summer was the one time you could buy this one under book value. You buy the assets at a 25% discount to what it cost them to build it. They are moving more towards liquids and building facilities for them. (Guest's target: $34.00)
BUY
Need to be careful on the gas recovery. It is primarily a weather trade. If you are bullish on gas, this is a solid name.
COMMENT

Nat gas prices have barely risen in Canada. This is one of his few Canadian energy stocks. They signed long-term contracts priced when natural gas was higher, and sell in various markets so benfit from those currencies. Their cash flow growth has slowed, but it's 3.7x this year and 3.2x in 2019. Well-managed company. Bide your time here. One of the best stocks in this sector.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

This is a trophy stock. It is one of the best run companies. It was $60 in 2014. Their production is 18% liquids and they are bringing on more liquids. They will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Birchcliff and Bonavista. They have increased their dividend from 0 to a 2% yield. He expects cash flow above $4 per year. Book value is $27. He expects it to drop below $20 in tax loss selling season and sees that level as a table-pounding buy.

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