Don LatoTourmaline Oil CorpTOU.TOBUYJun 27, 2018

Never discount the important of dividends to your total return! Underwhelming, while a lot of other energy stocks have really taken off. Has "oil" in its name, but it's actually Canada's largest nat gas producer. SHEL acquisition of ARX was a watershed moment in the Canadian oil patch and, in particular, nat gas.

Still grossly undervalued.

Exporting through LNG Canada to capture Asian pricing for nat gas is going to be big.

Like both, but TOU has been sideways, because they are investing in capex, but turning back to shareholder returns. So, TOU should return to vogue. TVE has been a tear lately but trades at 11x forward PE with good growth. TVE will be a little more volatile.

Short term, what happens to the oil price and in the Middle East is going to kick these stocks around. So it's hard to pick an entry point. Take your time and leg in over several months.

He owns CNQ instead.

Frustrating longer-term base for a while. Resistance ~$80, but the lows are getting higher -- buying is getting more aggressive. Seeing a breakout of the range. "Smart money" is long natural gas, which typically sets up for a rally. 

He bought at the bottom of their range and sold at the top. Many times this has broken out, many times it has failed to sustain that. The blockage of oil in the Middle East effects everyone. He would sell shares soon.

If you already have oils in your portfolio, don't buy now. If you share his thesis that the Strait will be challenged with only some traffic going through, then we're probably looking at $80-90 oil. Canadian oil companies are at a massive advantage because we're really trying to expand our markets.

For a 5-year horizon, CNQ looks really good. On the nat gas side, he likes TOU and PEY.

Great assets, well run, prime position in the Montney. He doesn't have a particularly strong or constructive view on natural gas. An escalation in the current conflict won't really impact gas. Definitive LNG Canada prospects are way in the future.

He'd much rather own CNQ over time.

Not an oil producer per se, as it produces primarily natural gas (actually Canada's largest). He's constructive on nat gas prospects given that Alberta's starting to build data centres, demand for clean power is increasing, and LNG terminals are being built (while damage to Quatar's facilities might take 3-5 years to repair).

Also see his Top Picks.

Total respect for management. Lots of insider ownership. Great job aggregating resources. One day it'll be strategic, just not today. Tailwinds from Alberta data centres, but that's really down the road.

See his Top Picks.

He doesn't have any direct holdings in energy. Since 2022 it has been in a trading pattern around $64 with a high of $71 and a low of $54. It has rallied quickly because of the Iran war. However he wouldn't buy it since he thinks it would still trade in that consolidation range. If owned, he would hold. The world wants the war in Iran to be resolved quickly.

Long base, appears to be breaking out. Tentative target of $85. Earnings are ticking back up again. Iran conflict increasing energy prices is quite bullish. He'd buy and hold.

Nat gas is lagging the oil producers. Chart shows a large flag going back to 2022 and we're coming out the top of that, so makes a lot of sense. Seasonally it's OK to buy this here as a longer-term investor (there will be corrections along the way).

Largest natural gas producer in Canada. Well run. A bounce from the rising oil price. If nat gas price ever appreciates, this name would do quite well. AI infrastructure also needs generators, which are usually powered by nat gas. 

Hopefully, LNG exports will help natural gas price move up. Lots of intentions stated and agreements signed by the feds, but not much put in motion yet. Yield is 3.01%.

Really good management, building a strong company. Assets sales should bolster balance sheet. Needs stronger, sustained oil price. Cheap valuation. Total return should be fine. Worth holding until the sector re-rates.